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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
medicine
Predicting the environmental suitability for onchocerciasis in Africa as an aid to elimination planning
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Volume 15, No. 7, Article e0008824, Year 2021
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Description
Recent evidence suggests that, in some foci, elimination of onchocerciasis from Africa may be feasible with mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. To achieve continental elimination of transmission, mapping surveys will need to be conducted across all implementation units (IUs) for which endemicity status is currently unknown. Using boosted regression tree models with optimised hyperparameter selection, we estimated environmental suitability for onchocerciasis at the 5 × 5-km resolution across Africa. In order to classify IUs that include locations that are environmentally suitable, we used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to identify an optimal threshold for suitability concordant with locations where onchocerciasis has been previously detected. This threshold value was then used to classify IUs (more suitable or less suitable) based on the location within the IU with the largest mean prediction. Mean estimates of environmental suitability suggest large areas across West and Central Africa, as well as focal areas of East Africa, are suitable for onchocerciasis transmission, consistent with the presence of current control and elimination of transmission efforts. The ROC analysis identified a mean environmental suitability index of 0.71 as a threshold to classify based on the location with the largest mean prediction within the IU. Of the IUs considered for mapping surveys, 50.2% exceed this threshold for suitability in at least one 5×5-km location. The formidable scale of data collection required to map onchocerciasis endemicity across the African continent presents an opportunity to use spatial data to identify areas likely to be suitable for onchocerciasis transmission. National onchocerciasis elimination programmes may wish to consider prioritising these IUs for mapping surveys as human resources, laboratory capacity, and programmatic schedules may constrain survey implementation, and possibly delaying MDA initiation in areas that would ultimately qualify. © 2021, Public Library of Science. All rights reserved.
Available Materials
https://efashare.b-cdn.net/share/pmc/articles/PMC8318275/bin/pntd.0008824.s001.jpg
https://efashare.b-cdn.net/share/pmc/articles/PMC8318275/bin/pntd.0008824.s002.jpg
https://efashare.b-cdn.net/share/pmc/articles/PMC8318275/bin/pntd.0008824.s003.jpg
https://efashare.b-cdn.net/share/pmc/articles/PMC8318275/bin/pntd.0008824.s004.jpg
https://efashare.b-cdn.net/share/pmc/articles/PMC8318275/bin/pntd.0008824.s005.jpg
https://efashare.b-cdn.net/share/pmc/articles/PMC8318275/bin/pntd.0008824.s006.jpg
https://efashare.b-cdn.net/share/pmc/articles/PMC8318275/bin/pntd.0008824.s007.jpg
https://efashare.b-cdn.net/share/pmc/articles/PMC8318275/bin/pntd.0008824.s008.jpg
https://efashare.b-cdn.net/share/pmc/articles/PMC8318275/bin/pntd.0008824.s009.jpg
https://efashare.b-cdn.net/share/pmc/articles/PMC8318275/bin/pntd.0008824.s010.docx
https://efashare.b-cdn.net/share/pmc/articles/PMC8318275/bin/pntd.0008824.s011.docx
https://efashare.b-cdn.net/share/pmc/articles/PMC8318275/bin/pntd.0008824.s012.docx
https://efashare.b-cdn.net/share/pmc/articles/PMC8318275/bin/pntd.0008824.s013.docx
https://efashare.b-cdn.net/share/pmc/articles/PMC8318275/bin/pntd.0008824.s014.docx
https://efashare.b-cdn.net/share/pmc/articles/PMC8318275/bin/pntd.0008824.s015.docx
https://efashare.b-cdn.net/share/pmc/articles/PMC8318275/bin/pntd.0008824.s016.docx
https://efashare.b-cdn.net/share/pmc/articles/PMC8318275/bin/pntd.0008824.s017.pdf
Authors & Co-Authors
Cromwell, Elizabeth A.
United States, Seattle
University of Washington
Osborne, Joshua C.P.
United States, Seattle
University of Washington
Unnasch, Thomas Raymond
United States, Tampa
University of South Florida, Tampa
Basáñez, María Gloria
United Kingdom, London
Imperial College London
United Kingdom, London
Medical Research Council
Gass, Katherine M.
United States, Decatur
Ntd Support Center
Barbre, Kira A.
United States, Decatur
Ntd Support Center
Hill, Elex
United States, Seattle
University of Washington
Johnson, Kimberly B.
United States, Seattle
University of Washington
Donkers, Katie M.
United States, Seattle
University of Washington
Shirude, Shreya
United States, Seattle
University of Washington
Schmidt, Chris A.
United States, Seattle
University of Washington
Adekanmbi, V. T.
United Kingdom, London
King's College London
Adetokunboh, Olatunji O.
South Africa, Stellenbosch
Stellenbosch University
Afarideh, Mohsen
United States, Rochester
Mayo Clinic
Iran, Tehran
Tehran University of Medical Sciences
Ahmadpour, Ehsan
Iran, Tabriz
Tabriz University of Medical Sciences
Ahmed, Muktar Beshir
Ethiopia, Jimma
Jimma University
Australia, Adelaide
University of South Australia
Akalu, Temesgen Yihunie
Ethiopia, Gondar
University of Gondar
Al-Aly, Ziyad
United States, St. Louis
Washington University in St. Louis
United States, Washington, D.c.
U.s. Department of Veterans Affairs
Alanezi, Fahad Mashhour
Saudi Arabia, Dammam
Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University
Alanzi, Turki Mashhoor
Saudi Arabia, Dammam
Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University
Alipour, Vahid
Iran, Tehran
Iran University of Medical Sciences
Andrei, Câtâlina Liliana
Romania, Bucharest
Universitatea de Medicina si Farmacie Carol Davila Din Bucuresti
Ansari, Fereshteh
Iran, Tabriz
Tabriz University of Medical Sciences
Iran, Karaj
Razi Vaccine & Serum Research Institute, Iran
Ansha, Mustafa Geleto
Ethiopia, Debre Berhan
Debre Berhan University
Anvari, Davood
Iran, Sari
Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences
Iran, Iranshahr
Iranshahr University of Medical Sciences
Yaw Appiah, Seth Christopher
Ghana, Kumasi
Kwame Nkrumah University of Science & Technology
Germany, Munich
Ludwig-maximilians-universität München
Arabloo, Jalal
Iran, Tehran
Iran University of Medical Sciences
Arnold, Benjamin F.
United States, San Francisco
University of California, San Francisco
Ausloos, M.
United Kingdom, Leicester
University of Leicester
Romania, Bucharest
Bucharest University of Economic Studies
Ayanore, Martin Amogre
Ghana, Ho
University of Health and Allied Sciences, Ghana
Baig, Atif Amin
Malaysia, Kuala Terengganu
Universiti Sultan Zainal Abidin
Banach, Maciej P.
Poland, Lodz
Medical University of Lodz
Barac, Aleksandra M.
Serbia, Belgrade
Klinicki Centar Srbije
Serbia, Belgrade
University of Belgrade
Bärnighausen, Till Winfried
Germany, Heidelberg
Universität Heidelberg
United States, Cambridge
Harvard University
Bayati, Mohsen
Iran, Shiraz
Shiraz University of Medical Sciences
Bhattacharyya, Krittika
India, Kalyani
National Institute of Biomedical Genomics
India, Kolkata
University of Calcutta
Bhutta, Zulfiqar A.
Canada, Toronto
University of Toronto
Pakistan, Karachi
The Aga Khan University
Bibi, Sadia D.
Pakistan, Faisalabad
University of Agriculture, Faisalabad
Bijani, Ali
Iran, Babol
Babol University of Medical Sciences
Bohlouli, Somayeh
Iran, Kermanshah
Islamic Azad University, Kermanshah Branch
Bohlouli, Mahdi
Iran, Zanjan
Institute for Advanced Studies in Basic Sciences, Zanjan
Brady, Oliver J.
United Kingdom, London
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Bragazzi, Nicola Luigi
Italy, Genoa
Università Degli Studi Di Genova
Butt, Zahid A.
Canada, Waterloo
University of Waterloo
Pakistan, Rawalpindi
Al-shifa Trust Eye Hospital
Carvalho, Félix Dias
Portugal, Caparica
Ucibio-requimte
Chatterjee, Souranshu
Unknown Affiliation
Chattu, Vijay Kumar
Canada, Toronto
University of Toronto
Chattu, Soosanna Kumary
Guyana, Georgetown
Texila American University
Cormier, Natalie Maria
United States, Seattle
University of Washington
Dahlawi, Saad Mohammed
Saudi Arabia, Dammam
Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University
Damiani, Giovanni
Italy, Milan
Irccs Istituto Ortopedico Galeazzi
United States, Cleveland
Case Western Reserve University
Daoud, Farah
United States, Seattle
University of Washington
Darwesh, Aso Mohammad
Iraq, Sulaymaniyah
University of Human Development
Daryani, Ahamd
Iran, Sari
Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences
Deribe, Kebede
United Kingdom, Brighton
Brighton and Sussex Medical School
Ethiopia, Addis Ababa
Addis Ababa University
Dharmaratne, Samath Dhamminda
United States, Seattle
University of Washington
Sri Lanka, Peradeniya
University of Peradeniya
Diaz, D.
Unknown Affiliation
Do, Hoa Thi
Unknown Affiliation
El Sayed Zak, Maysaa
Egypt, Cairo
Egypt Ministry of Higher Education
El Tantawi, Maha M.A.
Egypt, Alexandria
Alexandria University
Elemineh, Demelash Abewa
Ethiopia, Debra Marcos
Debre Markos University
Faraj, Anwar
Iraq, Sulaymaniyah
University of Human Development
Fasihi Harandi, Majid
Iran, Kerman
Kerman University of Medical Sciences
Fatahi, Yousef
Iran, Tehran
Tehran University of Medical Sciences
Feigin, Valery L.
United States, Seattle
University of Washington
New Zealand, Auckland
Auckland University of Technology
Russian Federation, Moscow
Research Center of Neurology
Fernandes, Eduarda G.R.
Portugal, Porto
Laqv-requimte
Foigt, Nataliya A.
Ukraine, Kyiv
National Academy of Medical Sciences of Ukraine
Foroutan, M.
Iran, Abadan
Abadan University of Medical Sciences
Franklin, Richard Charles
Australia, Townsville
James Cook University
Mohialdeen Gubari, Mohammed Ibrahim
Iraq, Sulaymaniyah
University of Sulaimani
Guido, Davide
Italy, Milan
Foundation Irccs Neurological Institute C. Besta
Guo, Yuming
Australia, Clayton
Monash University
China, Binzhou
Binzhou Medical College
Haj-Mirzaian, Arvin
Iran, Tehran
Tehran University of Medical Sciences
Iran, Tehran
Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences
Abdullah, Kanaan Hamagharib
Iraq, Sulaymaniyah
University of Human Development
Hamidi, Samer A.
United Arab Emirates, Dubai
Hamdan Bin Mohammed Smart University
Herteliu, Claudiu
Romania, Bucharest
Bucharest University of Economic Studies
United Kingdom, London
London South Bank University
de Hidru, Hagos Degefa
Ethiopia, Adigrat
Adigrat University
Higazi, Tarig B.
Unknown Affiliation
Hossain, Naznin
Unknown Affiliation
Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi
Viet Nam, Da Nang
Duy Tan University
Iraq, Sulaymaniyah
University of Human Development
Househ, Mowafa Said
Qatar, Doha
Hamad Bin Khalifa University
Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen
Nigeria, Ibadan
University of Ibadan
Nigeria, Ibadan
University College Hospital, Ibadan
Ilic, Milena D.
Serbia, Kragujevac
University of Kragujevac
Ilic, Irena M.
Serbia, Belgrade
University of Belgrade
Iqbal, Usman
Taiwan, Taipei
Taipei Medical University
Naghibi Irvani, Seyed Sina
Iran, Tehran
Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences
Joukar, Farahnaz
Iran, Rasht
Guilan University of Medical Sciences
Jóźwiak, Jacek Jerzy
Poland, Opole
Uniwersytet Opolski
Kabir, Zubair
Ireland, Cork
University College Cork
Kalankesh, Leila R.
Iran, Tabriz
Tabriz University of Medical Sciences
Kalhor, Rohollah
Iran, Qazvin
Qazvin University of Medical Sciences
Karamimatin, Behzad
Iran, Kermanshah
Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences
Karimi, Salah Eddin
Iran, Tabriz
Tabriz University of Medical Sciences
Kasaeian, Amir
Iran, Tehran
Pars Advanced and Minimally Invasive Medical Manners Research Center
Iran, Tehran
Tehran University of Medical Sciences
Kavetskyy, Taras S.
Poland, Lublin
Katolicki Uniwersytet Lubelski Jana Pawła Ii
Ukraine, Drogobich
Drohobych Ivan Franko State Pedagogical University
Kayode, Gbenga Ayodele
Nigeria, Abuja
Institute of Human Virology - Nigeria
Netherlands, Utrecht
Universiteit Utrecht
Kazemi-Karyani, Ali
Iran, Kermanshah
Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences
Kelbore, Abraham Getachew
Ethiopia, Sodo
Wolaita Sodo University
Keramati, Maryam
Iran, Mashhad
Mashhad University of Medical Sciences
Khalilov, Rovshan I.
Azerbaijan, Baku
Baku State University
Azerbaijan, Baku
Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences
Khan, Ejaz Ahmad
Pakistan, Islamabad
Health Services Academy Islamabad
Khan, Md Nuruzzaman
Australia, Callaghan
The University of Newcastle, Australia
Khatab, Khaled
United Kingdom, Sheffield
Sheffield Hallam University
United States, Athens
Ohio University
Khater, Mona M.
Egypt, Cairo
Faculty of Medicine
Kianipour, Neda
Iran, Kermanshah
Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences
Kibret, Kelemu Tilahun
Ethiopia, Nekemte
Wollega University
Kim, Yun-jin
Malaysia, Sepang
Xiamen University Malaysia
Kosen, Soewarta
Unknown Affiliation
Krohn, Kristopher J.
United States, Seattle
University of Washington
Kusuma, Dian
United Kingdom, London
Imperial College London
Indonesia, Depok
Universitas Indonesia
Vecchia, Carlo La
Italy, Milan
Università Degli Studi Di Milano
Lee, Paul H.
Hong Kong, Hong Kong
The Hong Kong Polytechnic University
LeGrand, Kate E.
United States, Seattle
University of Washington
Li, Shanshan
Australia, Clayton
Monash University
Longbottom, Joshua
United Kingdom, Liverpool
Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine
Magdy Abd El Razek, Hassan
Egypt, Mansoura
Egypt Ministry of Health and Population
Abd El Razek, Muhammed Magdy
Egypt, Aswan
Ministry of Health and Population
Maleki, Afshin
Iran, Tehran
Tehran University of Medical Sciences
Iran, Sanandaj
Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences
Mamun, Abdullah A.
Australia, Brisbane
The University of Queensland
Manafi, Ali
Iran, Tehran
Iran University of Medical Sciences
Manafi, Navid
Iran, Tehran
Iran University of Medical Sciences
Canada, Winnipeg
University of Manitoba
Mansournia, Mohammad Ali
Iran, Tehran
Tehran University of Medical Sciences
Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio
Unknown Affiliation
Mazidi, Mohsen
United Kingdom, London
King's College London
McAlinden, Colm
United Kingdom, Swansea
Ysbyty Singleton
Meharie, Birhanu Geta
Ethiopia, Dessie
Wollo University
Mendoza, Walter
United States, New York
United Nations Population Fund
Mengesha, Endalkachew Worku
Ethiopia, Bahir Dar
Bahir Dar University
Mengistu, Desalegn Tadese
Ethiopia, Makale
Mekelle University
Mereta, Seid Tiku
Ethiopia, Jimma
Jimma University
Meštrović, Tomislav
Croatia, Zagreb
Dr. Zora Profozic Polyclinic
Croatia, Koprivnica
University North
Miller, Ted R.
United States, Beltsville
Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation
Australia, Perth
Curtin University
Miri, Mohammad
Iran, Sabzevar
Sabzevar University of Medical Sciences
Moghadaszadeh, Masoud
Iran, Tabriz
Tabriz University of Medical Sciences
Mohamadian-Hafshejani, Abdollah
Iran, Shahr-e Kord
Shahrekord University of Medical Sciences
Mohammadpourhodki, Reza
Iran, Mashhad
Mashhad University of Medical Sciences
Mohammed, Shafiu Abdullah
Germany, Heidelberg
Universität Heidelberg
Nigeria, Zaria
Ahmadu Bello University
Mohammed, Salahuddin Farooq
United States, University
University of Mississippi
Ethiopia, Mizan Teferi
Mizan-tepi University
Moradi, Masoud
Iran, Kermanshah
Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences
Moradzadeh, Rahmatollah
Iran, Arak
Arak University of Medical Sciences
Moraga, Paula
Saudi Arabia, Thuwal
King Abdullah University of Science and Technology
Mosser, Jonathan F.
United States, Seattle
University of Washington
Naderi, Mehdi
Iran, Kermanshah
Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences
Nagarajan, Ahamarshan Jayaraman
Unknown Affiliation
Naik, Gurudatta A.
United States, Birmingham
The University of Alabama at Birmingham
Negoi, Ionut
Romania, Bucharest
Universitatea de Medicina si Farmacie Carol Davila Din Bucuresti
Nguyen, Cuong Tat
Viet Nam, Da Nang
Duy Tan University
Nguyen, Huong Lan Thi
Viet Nam, Da Nang
Duy Tan University
Nguyen, Trang Huyen Thi
Viet Nam, Ho Chi Minh City
Dại Học Nguyen Tat Thanh
Nikbakhsh, Rajan
Iran, Tehran
Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences
Oancea, Bogdan
Romania, Bucharest
Universitatea Din Bucuresti
Olagunju, Tinuke Oluwasefunmi
Canada, Hamilton
Mcmaster University
Olagunju, Andrew Toyin
Canada, Hamilton
Mcmaster University
Nigeria, Lagos
University of Lagos
Omar Bali, Ahmed
Iraq, Sulaymaniyah
University of Human Development
Onwujekwe, Obinna E.
Nigeria, Naukka
University of Nigeria
Rahim, Fakher
Iran, Ahvaz
Ahvaz Jundishapur University of Medical Sciences
Iran, Tehran
Tehran University of Medical Sciences
Rathi, Priya
India, Manipal
Manipal Academy of Higher Education
Rawaf, Salman
United Kingdom, London
Imperial College London
United Kingdom, London
Public Health England
Rawaf, David Laith
United Kingdom, London
Imperial College London
United Kingdom, London
University College London Hospitals Nhs Foundation Trust
Rawassizadeh, Reza
United States, Boston
Boston University
Resnikoff, Serge R.
Australia, Sydney
Unsw Sydney
Australia, Sydney
Brien Holden Vision Institute
Reta, Melese Abate
Ethiopia, Woldia
Woldia University
South Africa, Pretoria
University of Pretoria
Rezapour, Aziz
Iran, Tehran
Iran University of Medical Sciences
Rubagotti, Enrico
Colombia, Cali
Universidad Icesi
Rubino, Salvatore
Italy, Sassari
Università Degli Studi Di Sassari
Saghafipour, Abedin
Iran, Tehran
Iranian Ministry of Health and Medical Education
Iran, Qom
Qom University of Medical Sciences and Health Services
Sajadi, S. Mohammad
Iraq, Soran
Soran University
Iraq, Erbil
Cihan University-erbil
Samy, Abdallah Mohammed
Egypt, Cairo
Ain Shams University
Suárez, Rodrigo Sarmiento
Colombia, Bogota
Universidad de Ciencias Aplicadas y Ambientales
Spain, Madrid
Instituto de Salud Carlos Iii
Sawhney, Monika
United States, Charlotte
The University of North Carolina at Charlotte
Schipp, Megan F.
United States, Seattle
University of Washington
Shaheen, Amira A.
Palestine, Nablus
An-najah National University
Shaikh, Masood Ali A.
Unknown Affiliation
Shamsizadeh, Morteza
Sweden, Boras
Högskolan I Borås
Sharafi, Kiomars
Iran, Kermanshah
Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences
Sheikh, Aziz
United Kingdom, Edinburgh
The University of Edinburgh
United States, Cambridge
Harvard University
Shetty, B. Suresh Kumar
India, Manipal
Manipal Academy of Higher Education
Shin, Jae Il I.
South Korea, Seoul
Yonsei University
Singh, Jasvinder A.
United States, Birmingham
The University of Alabama at Birmingham
United States, Birmingham
Birmingham va Medical Center
Soheili, Amin
Iran, Semnan
Semnan University of Medical Sciences and Health Services
Soltani, Shahin
Iran, Kermanshah
Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences
Spurlock, Emma Elizabeth
United States, Seattle
University of Washington
Sufiyan, Mu'Awiyyah Babale
Nigeria, Zaria
Ahmadu Bello University
Thompson, Robert L.
United States, Seattle
University of Washington
Thomson, Alan J.
Unknown Affiliation
Tran, Bach Xuan
Viet Nam, Hanoi
Hanoi Medical University
Ullah, Irfan
Pakistan, Peshawar
Iqra National University
Uneke, Chigozie Jesse
Nigeria, Abakaliki
Ebonyi State University
Uthman, Olalekan A.
United Kingdom, Coventry
University of Warwick
Melchers, Natalie V.S.Vinkeles
Netherlands, Rotterdam
Erasmus Mc
Violante, Francesco Saverio
Italy, Bologna
Alma Mater Studiorum Università Di Bologna
Italy, Bologna
Irccs Azienda Ospedaliero-universitaria Di Bologna
Wolde, Haileab Fekadu
Ethiopia, Gondar
University of Gondar
Wonde, Tewodros Eshete
Ethiopia, Debra Marcos
Debre Markos University
Yaya, Sanni
Canada, Ottawa
University of Ottawa
United Kingdom, Oxford
The George Institute, uk
Yip, Paul Siu Fai
Hong Kong, Hong Kong
The University of Hong Kong
Yousof, Hebat Allah Salah A.
Egypt, Cairo
Faculty of Medicine
Yu, Chuanhua
China, Wuhan
Wuhan University
Yu, Yong
China, Shiyan
Hubei University of Medicine
Yusefzadeh, Hasan
Iran, Urmia
Urmia University of Medical Sciences
Zaki, Leila
Iran, Tehran
Tarbiat Modares University
Zaman, Sojib Bin
Australia, Clayton
Monash Health
Bangladesh, Dhaka
International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research Bangladesh
Zamanian, Maryam
Iran, Arak
Arak University of Medical Sciences
Zhang, Zhi Jiang
China, Wuhan
Wuhan University
Ziapour, Arash
Iran, Kermanshah
Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences
Hay, Simon I.
United States, Seattle
University of Washington
Pigott, David M.
United States, Seattle
University of Washington
Statistics
Citations: 8
Authors: 206
Affiliations: 185
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0008824
ISSN:
19352727
Research Areas
Infectious Diseases
Study Design
Cross Sectional Study
Grounded Theory
Study Approach
Quantitative
Study Locations
Multi-countries