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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
medicine
A conceptual model for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in Wuhan, China with individual reaction and governmental action
International Journal of Infectious Diseases, Volume 93, Year 2020
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Description
The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak, emerged in Wuhan, China in the end of 2019, has claimed more than 2600 lives as of 24 February 2020 and posed a huge threat to global public health. The Chinese government has implemented control measures including setting up special hospitals and travel restriction to mitigate the spread. We propose conceptual models for the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan with the consideration of individual behavioural reaction and governmental actions, e.g., holiday extension, travel restriction, hospitalisation and quarantine. We employe the estimates of these two key components from the 1918 influenza pandemic in London, United Kingdom, incorporated zoonotic introductions and the emigration, and then compute future trends and the reporting ratio. The model is concise in structure, and it successfully captures the course of the COVID-19 outbreak, and thus sheds light on understanding the trends of the outbreak. © 2020
Authors & Co-Authors
Lin, Qianying
United States, Ann Arbor
University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
Zhao, Shi
Hong Kong, Hong Kong
Chinese University of Hong Kong
Gao, Daozhou
China, Shanghai
Shanghai Normal University
Lou, Yijun
Hong Kong, Hong Kong
The Hong Kong Polytechnic University
Yang, Shu
China, Chengdu
Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine
Musa, Salihu Sabiu
Hong Kong, Hong Kong
The Hong Kong Polytechnic University
Wang, Maggie Haitian
Hong Kong, Hong Kong
Chinese University of Hong Kong
Cai, Yongli
China, Huainan
Huaiyin Teachers University
Wang, Weiming
China, Huainan
Huaiyin Teachers University
He, Daihai
Hong Kong, Hong Kong
The Hong Kong Polytechnic University
Statistics
Citations: 723
Authors: 10
Affiliations: 6
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1016/j.ijid.2020.02.058
ISSN:
12019712
Research Areas
Covid
Infectious Diseases