Credible Commitment or Sham Devotion to the International Criminal Court: Whither Nigeria, Kenya and Uganda?

There is a pattern of inconsistent behaviour among some African states towards the International Criminal Court (ICC) showing credible commitment and sham devotion. This study poses a question: what will be of the status of Nigeria, Kenya and Uganda (the Triad) vis-à-vis the ICC by the end of 2023, considering the pattern of behaviour of these states so far, evidence from data and the spate of domestication and exit procedures in homogeneous African states in contemporary times? The objectives of the study are to predict the status of the Triad by 2023 and reflect on the implication of the predictions for the on-going viability, sustainability and credibility challenges facing the ICC in Africa. The study finds that: the pattern of Nigeria's behaviour shows sham devotion and predicts that she will not domesticate the Rome Statute come 2023; the pattern of Kenya's behaviour straddles credible commitment and sham devotion and she may maintain her membership of the ICC by 2023; the pattern of Uganda's behaviour shows fairly credible commitment mixed with sham devotion and she will maintain her membership of the Statute come 2023. These predictions have implications on the ongoing viability, sustainability and credibility challenges facing the ICC in Africa.