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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
earth and planetary sciences
Broad range of 2050 warming from an observationally constrained large climate model ensemble
Nature Geoscience, Volume 5, No. 4, Year 2012
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Description
Incomplete understanding of three aspects of the climate system-equilibrium climate sensitivity, rate of ocean heat uptake and historical aerosol forcing-and the physical processes underlying them lead to uncertainties in our assessment of the global-mean temperature evolution in the twenty-first century 1,2. Explorations of these uncertainties have so far relied on scaling approaches 3,4, large ensembles of simplified climate models 1,2, or small ensembles of complex coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models 5,6 which under-represent uncertainties in key climate system properties derived from independent sources 7,9. Here we present results from a multi-thousand-member perturbed-physics ensemble of transient coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model simulations. We find that model versions that reproduce observed surface temperature changes over the past 50 years show global-mean temperature increases of 1.4-3 K by 2050, relative to 1961-1990, under a mid-range forcing scenario. This range of warming is broadly consistent with the expert assessment provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, but extends towards larger warming than observed in ensembles-of-opportunity 5 typically used for climate impact assessments. From our simulations, we conclude that warming by the middle of the twenty-first century that is stronger than earlier estimates is consistent with recent observed temperature changes and a mid-range 'no mitigation' scenario for greenhouse-gas emissions. © 2012 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.
Authors & Co-Authors
Rowlands, Daniel J.
United Kingdom, Oxford
University of Oxford
United Kingdom, London
London School of Economics and Political Science
Frame, David J.
United Kingdom, Oxford
University of Oxford
New Zealand, Wellington
Victoria University of Wellington
Ackerley, Duncan
Australia, Clayton
Monash University
United Kingdom, Reading
University of Reading
Aina, Tolu
United Kingdom, Oxford
University of Oxford
Booth, Ben B.B.
United Kingdom, Exeter
Met Office
Christensen, Carl M.
United Kingdom, Oxford
University of Oxford
Collins, Matthew
United Kingdom, Exeter
University of Exeter
Faull, Nicholas E.
United Kingdom, Oxford
University of Oxford
Forest, Chris E.
United States, University Park
Pennsylvania State University
Grandey, Benjamin S.
United Kingdom, Oxford
University of Oxford
Gryspeerdt, Edward
United Kingdom, Oxford
University of Oxford
Highwood, Eleanor J.
United Kingdom, Reading
University of Reading
Ingram, William J.
United Kingdom, Oxford
University of Oxford
United Kingdom, Exeter
Met Office
Knight, Sylvia H.E.
United Kingdom, Reading
Royal Meteorological Society
Lopez, Ana
United Kingdom, Oxford
University of Oxford
United Kingdom, London
London School of Economics and Political Science
Massey, Neil R.
United Kingdom, Oxford
University of Oxford
McNamara, Frances
United Kingdom, London
British Broadcasting Corporation
Meinshausen, Nicolai
United Kingdom, Oxford
University of Oxford
Piani, Claudio
Italy, Trieste
Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics
France, Paris
The American University of Paris
Rosier, Suzanne M.
United Kingdom, Oxford
University of Oxford
New Zealand, Auckland
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research
Sanderson, Benjamin M.
United States, Boulder
National Center for Atmospheric Research
Smith, Leonard A.
United Kingdom, London
London School of Economics and Political Science
United Kingdom, Oxford
University of Oxford
Stone, Dáithí A.
South Africa, Cape Town
University of Cape Town
Thurston, Milo
United Kingdom, Oxford
University of Oxford
Yamazaki, Kuniko
United Kingdom, Oxford
University of Oxford
Hiro Yamazaki, Y.
United Kingdom, Oxford
University of Oxford
United Kingdom, Newcastle
Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences
Allen, Myles R.
United Kingdom, Oxford
University of Oxford
Statistics
Citations: 144
Authors: 27
Affiliations: 16
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1038/ngeo1430
ISSN:
17520894
e-ISSN:
17520908
Research Areas
Environmental