Population Growth and CO2 Emission in Nigeria: A Recursive ARDL Approach

Theoretically, population growth is believed to increase greenhouse gas emissions, particularly CO2 emissions through the increase in human activities. Accordingly, this study aimed to investigate this assertion in Nigeria using an autoregressive distributed lag model covering periods from 1971-2000, 1971-2005, and 1971-2010 recursively. The results indicated that population was not a determinant of CO2 emissions in all the three periods in the long run. However, economic growth was found to be the only long-run CO2 emissions determining factor within the studied periods. However, in the short run, virtually all the explanatory variables and their lags, that is, population growth, economic growth, and energy consumption, were significant in determining CO2 emissions. The findings suggested that population growth, which is the focal point of the study, could only determine CO2 emissions in the short run. Therefore, population checking measures could be a short-run effective measure to lower the emissions level. Also, further research should be conducted on how to effectively and efficiently manage the population growth–CO2 emissions relationship.