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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
biochemistry, genetics and molecular biology
Seasonality of meningitis in Africa and climate forcing: Aerosols stand out
Journal of the Royal Society Interface, Volume 10, No. 79, Article 20120814, Year 2013
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Description
Bacterial meningitis is an ongoing threat for the population of the African Meningitis Belt, a region characterized by the highest incidence rates worldwide. The determinants of the disease dynamics are still poorly understood; nevertheless, it is often advocated that climate and mineral dust have a large impact. Over the last decade, several studies have investigated this relationship at a large scale. In this analysis, we scaled down to the district-level weekly scale (which is used for in-year response to emerging epidemics), and used wavelet and phase analysis methods to define and compare the time-varying periodicities of meningitis, climate and dust in Niger. We mostly focused on detecting time-lags between the signals that were consistent across districts. Results highlighted the special case of dust in comparison to wind, humidity or temperature: a strong similarity between districts is noticed in the evolution of the time-lags between the seasonal component of dust and meningitis. This result, together with the assumption of dust damaging the pharyngeal mucosa and easing bacterial invasion, reinforces our confidence in dust forcing on meningitis seasonality. Dust data should now be integrated in epidemiological and forecasting models to make them more realistic and usable in a public health perspective. © 2012 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.
Authors & Co-Authors
Agier, Lydiane
United Kingdom, Lancaster
Centre for Health Informatics, Computing, and Statistics
France, Paris
Institut Pasteur, Paris
Deroubaix, A.
France, Dijon
Université de Bourgogne
France, Paris
Laboratoire D'océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques
Martiny, Nadège
France, Dijon
Université de Bourgogne
Yaka, Pascal
Burkina Faso, Ouagadougou
Direction Générale de la Météorologie Dgm
Djibo, Ali
Niger
Ministry of Health
Broutin, Hélène
France, Montpellier
Maladies Infectieuses et Vecteurs : Écologie, Génétique, Évolution et Contrôle
Statistics
Citations: 88
Authors: 6
Affiliations: 7
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1098/rsif.2012.0814
ISSN:
17425689
e-ISSN:
17425662
Study Design
Cross Sectional Study
Cohort Study
Study Locations
Niger