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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
medicine
Predictive model of biliocystic communication in liver hydatid cysts using classification and regression tree analysis
BMC Surgery, Volume 10, Article 16, Year 2010
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Description
Background. Incidence of liver hydatid cyst (LHC) rupture ranged 15%-40% of all cases and most of them concern the bile duct tree. Patients with biliocystic communication (BCC) had specific clinic and therapeutic aspect. The purpose of this study was to determine witch patients with LHC may develop BCC using classification and regression tree (CART) analysis. Methods. A retrospective study of 672 patients with liver hydatid cyst treated at the surgery department "A" at Ibn Sina University Hospital, Rabat Morocco. Four-teen risk factors for BCC occurrence were entered into CART analysis to build an algorithm that can predict at the best way the occurrence of BCC. Results. Incidence of BCC was 24.5%. Subgroups with high risk were patients with jaundice and thick pericyst risk at 73.2% and patients with thick pericyst, with no jaundice 36.5 years and younger with no past history of LHC risk at 40.5%. Our developed CART model has sensitivity at 39.6%, specificity at 93.3%, positive predictive value at 65.6%, a negative predictive value at 82.6% and accuracy of good classification at 80.1%. Discriminating ability of the model was good 82%. Conclusion. we developed a simple classification tool to identify LHC patients with high risk BCC during a routine clinic visit (only on clinical history and examination followed by an ultrasonography). Predictive factors were based on pericyst aspect, jaundice, age, past history of liver hydatidosis and morphological Gharbi cyst aspect. We think that this classification can be useful with efficacy to direct patients at appropriated medical struct's. © 2010 El Malki et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.
Authors & Co-Authors
El Malki, Hadj Omar
Morocco, Agdal Rabat
Ibn Sina Hospital, Agdal Rabat
Morocco, Rabat
Mohammed V University in Rabat
El Mejdoubi, Yasser E.
Morocco, Agdal Rabat
Ibn Sina Hospital, Agdal Rabat
Souadka, Amine
Morocco, Agdal Rabat
Ibn Sina Hospital, Agdal Rabat
Mohsine, Raouf
Morocco, Agdal Rabat
Ibn Sina Hospital, Agdal Rabat
Ifrine, Lahssan
Morocco, Agdal Rabat
Ibn Sina Hospital, Agdal Rabat
Abouqal, Redouane
Morocco, Rabat
Mohammed V University in Rabat
Morocco, Agdal Rabat
Ibn Sina Hospital, Agdal Rabat
Belkouchi, Abdelkader
Morocco, Agdal Rabat
Ibn Sina Hospital, Agdal Rabat
Statistics
Citations: 40
Authors: 7
Affiliations: 2
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1186/1471-2482-10-16
e-ISSN:
14712482
Research Areas
Health System And Policy
Study Design
Cohort Study
Study Locations
Morocco