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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
The impact of antiretroviral treatment on the age composition of the HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa
AIDS, Volume 26, No. SUPPL.1, Year 2012
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Description
Introduction: Antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage is rapidly expanding in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Based on the effect of ART on survival of HIV-infected people and HIV transmission, the age composition of the HIV epidemic in the region is expected to change in the coming decades. We quantify the change in the age composition of HIV-infected people in all countries in SSA. Methods: We used STDSIM, a stochastic microsimulation model, and developed an approach to represent HIV prevalence and treatment coverage in 43 countries in SSA, using publicly available data. We predict future trends in HIV prevalence and total number of HIV-infected people aged 15-49 years and 50 years or older for different ART coverage levels. Results: We show that, if treatment coverage continues to increase at present rates, the total number of HIV-infected people aged 50 years or older will nearly triple over the coming years: from 3.1 million in 2011 to 9.1 million in 2040, dramatically changing the age composition of the HIV epidemic in SSA. In 2011, about one in seven HIV-infected people was aged 50 years or older; in 2040, this ratio will be larger than one in four. Conclusion: The HIV epidemic in SSA is rapidly ageing, implying changing needs and demands in many social sectors, including health, social care, and old-age pension systems. Health policymakers need to anticipate the impact of the changing HIV age composition in their planning for future capacity in these systems. © 2012 Wolters Kluwer Health | Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.
Authors & Co-Authors
Hontelez, Jan A.C.
Netherlands, Rotterdam
Erasmus Mc
Netherlands, Nijmegen
Radboud University Medical Center
South Africa, Durban
University of Kwazulu-natal
de Vlas, Sake Jan
Netherlands, Rotterdam
Erasmus Mc
Baltussen, Rob P.M.
Netherlands, Nijmegen
Radboud University Medical Center
Newell, Marie Louise
South Africa, Durban
University of Kwazulu-natal
Bakker, Roel
Netherlands, Rotterdam
Erasmus Mc
Tanser, Frank C.
South Africa, Durban
University of Kwazulu-natal
Lurie, Mark N.
United States, Providence
The Warren Alpert Medical School
Bärnighausen, Till Winfried
South Africa, Durban
University of Kwazulu-natal
United States, Boston
Harvard T.h. Chan School of Public Health
Statistics
Citations: 152
Authors: 8
Affiliations: 5
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1097/QAD.0b013e3283558526
e-ISSN:
14735571
Research Areas
Health System And Policy
Infectious Diseases
Study Design
Cross Sectional Study