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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
mathematics
Development and validation of a prognostic model for survival time data: Application to prognosis of HIV positive patients treated with antiretroviral therapy
Statistics in Medicine, Volume 23, No. 15, Year 2004
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Description
The process of developing and validating a prognostic model for survival time data has been much discussed in the literature. Assessment of the performance of candidate prognostic models on data other than that used to fit the models is essential for choosing a model that will generalize well to independent data. However, there remain difficulties in current methods of measuring the accuracy of predictions of prognostic models for censored survival time data. In this paper, flexible parametric models based on the Weibull, loglogistic and lognormal distributions with spline smoothing of the baseline log cumulative hazard function are used to fit a set of candidate prognostic models across k data sets. The model that generalizes best to new data is chosen using a cross-validation scheme which fits the model on k - 1 data sets and tests the predictive accuracy on the omitted data set. The procedure is repeated, omitting each data set in turn. The quality of the predictions is measured using three different methods: two commonly proposed validation methods, Harrell's concordance statistic and the Brier statistic, and a novel method using deviance differences. The results show that the deviance statistic is able to discriminate between quite similar models and can be used to choose a prognostic model that generalizes well to new data. The methods are illustrated by using a model developed to predict progression to a new AIDS event or death in HIV-1 positive patients starting antiretroviral therapy. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Authors & Co-Authors
May, Margaret T.
United Kingdom, Bristol
University of Bristol
Egger, Matthias
Switzerland, Bern
University of Bern
Justice, Amy C.
United States
Va Medical Center
Sterne, Jonathan A.C.
United Kingdom, Bristol
University of Bristol
Costagliola, Dominique G.
Unknown Affiliation
Dabis, Franćois Ç.Ois
Unknown Affiliation
D'Arminio Monforte, Antonella D.
Unknown Affiliation
De Wolf, Frank
Unknown Affiliation
Gill, M. John
Unknown Affiliation
Hogg, Robert S.
Unknown Affiliation
Leport, Catherine
Unknown Affiliation
Lundgren, Jens D.
Denmark, Copenhagen
Rigshospitalet
Phillips, Andrew N.
Unknown Affiliation
Salzberger, Bernd
Unknown Affiliation
Weller, Ian V.D.
Unknown Affiliation
Billaud, Éric
Unknown Affiliation
Boibieux, André
Unknown Affiliation
Boué, François
Unknown Affiliation
Briçaire, François
Unknown Affiliation
Cotte, Laurent
Unknown Affiliation
Fournier, Sandra
Unknown Affiliation
Gasnault, Jacques
Unknown Affiliation
Gilquin, Jacques M.
Unknown Affiliation
Grabar, Sophie G.
Unknown Affiliation
Laurichesse, Henri A.A.
Unknown Affiliation
Mary-Krause, Murielle
Unknown Affiliation
Matheron, Sophie
Unknown Affiliation
Meyohas, Marie Caroline
Unknown Affiliation
Michelet, Christian
Unknown Affiliation
Moreau, Jean François
Unknown Affiliation
Pialoux, Gilles
Unknown Affiliation
Poizot-Martin, Isabelle
Unknown Affiliation
Pradier, Christian
Unknown Affiliation
Rabaud, Christian
Unknown Affiliation
Rouveix, Elisabeth
Unknown Affiliation
Saïag, Phillippe
Unknown Affiliation
Salmon-Céron, Dominique
Unknown Affiliation
Soubeyrand, Jacques
Unknown Affiliation
Tissot-Dupont, Hervé
Unknown Affiliation
Koopmans, Peter P.
Unknown Affiliation
Hoepelman, Ilja M.
Unknown Affiliation
Borleffs, Jan C.C.
Unknown Affiliation
Bonten, Marc J.M.
Unknown Affiliation
Richter, Clemens
Unknown Affiliation
Goudsmit, Jaap
Unknown Affiliation
Back, Nicole K.T.
Unknown Affiliation
Jurriaans, Suzanne
Unknown Affiliation
Lange, Joep M.A.
Unknown Affiliation
Osterhaus, Albert D.M.E.
Unknown Affiliation
Niesters, Hubert G.M.
Unknown Affiliation
Schutten, Martin
Unknown Affiliation
Kroes, Aloysius C.M.
Unknown Affiliation
Schuurman, Robert F.W.
Unknown Affiliation
Boucher, Charles A.B.
Unknown Affiliation
Vetter, Norbert
Unknown Affiliation
Colebunders, Robert Leon
Unknown Affiliation
Nielsen, Jens Ole D.
United Kingdom, London
Mrc Clinical Trials Unit
Benfield, Thomas Lars
Denmark, Copenhagen
Rigshospitalet
Kirk, Ole
Denmark, Copenhagen
Rigshospitalet
Statistics
Citations: 49
Authors: 59
Affiliations: 5
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1002/sim.1825
ISSN:
02776715
Research Areas
Environmental
Infectious Diseases