Assessing the effect of management changes and environmental features on the spatio- temporal pattern of fire in an African Savanna. Fire spatio-temporal pattern

Spatio-temporal variability of the fire regime in the Kruger National Park (KNP) has been analyzed for the 1957-2011 period. Generalized linear mixed models have been used to assess the variability of fire metrics, such as the burnt area, the fire frequency and intensity for the entire area as well as for the main environmental classification systems (geology, soil, vegetation) and fire management zones. This analysis supports the hypothesis that the spatial pattern of fire regime is strongly influenced by the environmental template defined by climatic, geological, pedological and vegetation features. Moreover, contrary to some previous studies, together with the precipitation trend, fire management changes had a significant role in determining the temporal variability of the fire regime at the scale of KNP, particularly regarding the burnt area and the fire frequency. The complex interaction between the environmental template and management in determining the variability of the fire regime, as underscored by our study, defends the merit of adopting an adaptive planning/management based approach supported by quantitative analytic tools.