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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
agricultural and biological sciences
Flowering date of taxonomic families predicts phenological sensitivity to temperature: Implications for forecasting the effects of climate change on unstudied taxa
American Journal of Botany, Volume 100, No. 7, Year 2013
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Description
Premise of the study: Numerous long-term studies in seasonal habitats have tracked interannual variation in first flowering date (FFD) in relation to climate, documenting the effect of warming on the FFD of many species. Despite these efforts, long-term phenological observations are still lacking for many species. If we could forecast responses based on taxonomic affinity, however, then we could leverage existing data to predict the climate-related phenological shifts of many taxa not yet studied. Methods: We examined phenological time series of 1226 species occurrences (1031 unique species in 119 families) across seven sites in North America and England to determine whether family membership (or family mean FFD) predicts the sensitivity of FFD to standardized interannual changes in temperature and precipitation during seasonal periods before flowering and whether families differ significantly in the direction of their phenological shifts. Key results: Patterns observed among species within and across sites are mirrored among family means across sites; earlyflowering families advance their FFD in response to warming more than late-flowering families. By contrast, we found no consistent relationships among taxa between mean FFD and sensitivity to precipitation as measured here. Conclusions: Family membership can be used to identify taxa of high and low sensitivity to temperature within the seasonal, temperate zone plant communities analyzed here. The high sensitivity of early-flowering families (and the absence of earlyflowering families not sensitive to temperature) may reflect plasticity in flowering time, which may be adaptive in environments where early-season conditions are highly variable among years. © 2013 Botanical Society of America.
Authors & Co-Authors
Mazer, Susan J.
United States, Santa Barbara
University of California, Santa Barbara
South Africa, Stellenbosch
Stellenbosch Institute for Advanced Study
Travers, Steven E.
United States, Fargo
North Dakota State University
Cook, Benjamin I.
United States, New York
Nasa Goddard Institute for Space Studies
United States, Palisades
Lamont-doherty Earth Observatory
Jonathan Davies, T.
Canada, Montreal
Université Mcgill
Bolmgren, Kjell
Sweden, Lund
Lunds Universitet
Sweden, Uppsala
Sveriges Lantbruksuniversitet
Kraft, Nathan J.B.
United States, College Park
University of Maryland, College Park
Salamin, Nicolas
Switzerland, Lausanne
Sib Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics
Inouye, David William
United States, College Park
University of Maryland, College Park
United States, Crested Butte
Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory
Statistics
Citations: 10
Authors: 8
Affiliations: 11
Identifiers
Doi:
10.3732/ajb.1200455
ISSN:
00029122
Research Areas
Environmental