Predicting seasonal habitat suitability for the critically endangered African wild ass in the Danakil, Ethiopia

The African wild ass (Equus africanus) is the most endangered wild equid in the world and is listed as a Critically Endangered (CR) on the IUCN Red list. Today, only relict populations remain in Ethiopia and Eritrea. The current Ethiopian population persists in the Danakil Desert at a very low density. Wildlife managers need to identify the extent of the remaining suitable habitat and understand human-wildlife interactions for appropriate conservation strategies. This study employed the maximum entropy model (Maxent) to determine suitable habitat and seasonal distribution of African wild ass in the Danakil Desert of Ethiopia. Field surveys were conducted four times annually, twice during the wet season and twice during the dry season, for 2 years. Field data and predictor variables were separated into the dry and wet seasons, and models were generated for each season independently. Distance from water, distance from settlements, herbaceous cover and slope were the best predictors of suitable habitat for both dry and wet seasons. Evaluations of model performances were high with area under the curve (AUC) values of 0.94 and 0.95 for the dry and wet seasons, respectively. Our results will be critical for identifying the available suitable habitat that should be conserved to safeguard this species from extinction.