Predictive factors of morbidity and mortality after surgery in the elderly

The aim of the study was to determine prognostic factors of post operative morbidity and mortality for patients aged 80 years and older. We compared two groups of patients aged 80 and over operated to determine predictive factors of morbidity and mortality: group of patients who presented post operative complication within 30 days after surgery and group of patients without any complication. Comparison of the two groups for global morbidity using univariate analysis showed only one prognostic factor: surgery of diabetic foot (p = 0,034). Predictive factors of mortality according to univariate analysis were: pre-operative shock (p = 0,001), abdominal wall pathology (p = 0,027), gastric or duodenal ulcer diseases (p = 0,011) and global morbidity (p = 0,006). After logistic regression, only pre-operative shock was an independent predictive factor of mortality (p = 0,0023). Conclusion: Risk for morbidity after surgery in the elderly 80 years and over is linked with type of surgery and not with soil. Likewise, risk for mortality is linked with advanced stage of disease that is presence of pre-operative shock and not with soil.