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AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS

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engineering

SARIMA model-based forecasting required number of COVID-19 vaccines globally and empirical analysis of peoples’ view towards the vaccines

Alexandria Engineering Journal, Volume 61, No. 12, Year 2022

Recent studies regarding COVID-19 show a growing tendency to talk about the COVID-19 Pandemic on online channels. With the recent release of the Pfizer vaccine of COVID-19, people keep posting many rumors regarding the safety concerns of the Vaccine, especially among older people. Due to the rapid spread of the COVID-19 virus and the worldwide Pandemic developed, the rush to develop the COVID-19 Vaccine has become an alarming priority in health care services worldwide. In this research work, we have systematically evaluated people's views towards the COVID-19 Vaccine, and shreds of evidence are supported empirically. The study mainly focuses on the empirical evidence and intensive discussions on what is currently known about the mechanism of action, efficacy, and toxicity of the most promising vaccines (Moderna), (Pfizer/BioNtech), (Astrazenac/Oxford), and (Sputnik V) against COVID-19. Our study's primary objective is to provide an analysis of the questionnaire regarding people's opinions, preferences, and acceptance of the COVID-19 vaccines. We have created an online questionnaire using a google form to collect data from various countries supposed to employ COVID-19 vaccines. The questionnaires were distributed to people in many Arab and foreign countries such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, India, England, China, and Japan. A total of 516 responses were returned and analyzed using statistical, and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) approaches. The SARIMA model is used to predict the total number of vaccines in the next few days. To attain the most accurate forecast and prediction, the SARIMA model parameters are investigated with a grid search method. Finally, the combination of the parameters (1,0,1)×(1,0,0,1) is considered to be the best SARIMA model because it has the lowest AIC values of −4100.11 and the best Correlation coefficients of 0.984.
Statistics
Citations: 6
Authors: 6
Affiliations: 6
Identifiers
Research Areas
Covid
Study Locations
Egypt