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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
biochemistry, genetics and molecular biology
An epidemiological model of rift valley fever with spatial dynamics
Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine, Volume 2012, Article 138757, Year 2012
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Description
As a category A agent in the Center for Disease Control bioterrorism list, Rift Valley fever (RVF) is considered a major threat to the United States (USA). Should the pathogen be intentionally or unintentionally introduced to the continental USA, there is tremendous potential for economic damages due to loss of livestock, trade restrictions, and subsequent food supply chain disruptions. We have incorporated the effects of space into a mathematical model of RVF in order to study the dynamics of the pathogen spread as affected by the movement of humans, livestock, and mosquitoes. The model accounts for the horizontal transmission of Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) between two mosquito and one livestock species, and mother-to-offspring transmission of virus in one of the mosquito species. Space effects are introduced by dividing geographic space into smaller patches and considering the patch-to-patch movement of species. For each patch, a system of ordinary differential equations models fractions of populations susceptible to, incubating, infectious with, or immune to RVFV. The main contribution of this work is a methodology for analyzing the likelihood of pathogen establishment should an introduction occur into an area devoid of RVF. Examples are provided for general and specific cases to illustrate the methodology. © 2012 Tianchan Niu et al.
Authors & Co-Authors
Gaff, Holly D.
United States, Norfolk
Old Dominion University
Hartley, David M.
United States, Bethesda
National Institutes of Health Nih
United States, Washington, D.c.
Georgetown University Medical Center
Statistics
Citations: 33
Authors: 2
Affiliations: 3
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1155/2012/138757
ISSN:
1748670X
Research Areas
Food Security
Infectious Diseases