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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
general
Estimating spatiotemporally varying malaria reproduction numbers in a near elimination setting
Nature Communications, Volume 9, No. 1, Article 2476, Year 2018
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Description
In 2016 the World Health Organization identified 21 countries that could eliminate malaria by 2020. Monitoring progress towards this goal requires tracking ongoing transmission. Here we develop methods that estimate individual reproduction numbers and their variation through time and space. Individual reproduction numbers, R c, describe the state of transmission at a point in time and differ from mean reproduction numbers, which are averages of the number of people infected by a typical case. We assess elimination progress in El Salvador using data for confirmed cases of malaria from 2010 to 2016. Our results demonstrate that whilst the average number of secondary malaria cases was below one (0.61, 95% CI 0.55-0.65), individual reproduction numbers often exceeded one. We estimate a decline in R c between 2010 and 2016. However we also show that if importation is maintained at the same rate, the country may not achieve malaria elimination by 2020. © 2018 The Author(s).
Available Materials
https://efashare.b-cdn.net/share/pmc/articles/PMC6018772/bin/41467_2018_4577_MOESM1_ESM.pdf
https://efashare.b-cdn.net/share/pmc/articles/PMC6018772/bin/41467_2018_4577_MOESM2_ESM.pdf
Authors & Co-Authors
Routledge, Isobel
United Kingdom, London
Medical Research Council
Cucunubá, Zulma M.
United Kingdom, London
Medical Research Council
Guinovart, Caterina
United States, Seattle
Path Seattle
Schneider, Kammerle
United States, Seattle
Path Seattle
Walker, Patrick G.T.
United Kingdom, London
Medical Research Council
Ghani, Azra C.H.
United Kingdom, London
Medical Research Council
Bhatt, S. M.
United Kingdom, London
Medical Research Council
Statistics
Citations: 17
Authors: 7
Affiliations: 5
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1038/s41467-018-04577-y
ISSN:
20411723
Research Areas
Infectious Diseases