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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
general
Low Atlantic hurricane activity in the 1970s and 1980s compared to the past 270 years
Nature, Volume 447, No. 7145, Year 2007
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Description
Hurricane activity in the North Atlantic Ocean has increased significantly since 1995 (refs 1, 2). This trend has been attributed to both anthropogenically induced climate change and natural variability, but the primary cause remains uncertain. Changes in the frequency and intensity of hurricanes in the past can provide insights into the factors that influence hurricane activity, but reliable observations of hurricane activity in the North Atlantic only cover the past few decades. Here we construct a record of the frequency of major Atlantic hurricanes over the past 270 years using proxy records of vertical wind shear and sea surface temperature (the main controls on the formation of major hurricanes in this region) from corals and a marine sediment core. The record indicates that the average frequency of major hurricanes decreased gradually from the 1760s until the early 1990s, reaching anomalously low values during the 1970s and 1980s. Furthermore, the phase of enhanced hurricane activity since 1995 is not unusual compared to other periods of high hurricane activity in the record and thus appears to represent a recovery to normal hurricane activity, rather than a direct response to increasing sea surface temperature. Comparison of the record with a reconstruction of vertical wind shear indicates that variability in this parameter primarily controlled the frequency of major hurricanes in the Atlantic over the past 270 years, suggesting that changes in the magnitude of vertical wind shear will have a significant influence on future hurricane activity. ©2007 Nature Publishing Group.
Authors & Co-Authors
Malmgren, Björn A.
Sweden, Gothenburg
Göteborgs Universitet
Winter, Amos
Puerto Rico, San Juan
Universidad de Puerto Rico
Jury, Mark Robart
Puerto Rico, Mayaguez
Recinto Universitario de Mayagüez
Kilbourne, K. Halimeda
United States, St Petersburg
University of South Florida St. Petersburg
United States, Washington, D.c.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Statistics
Citations: 156
Authors: 4
Affiliations: 7
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1038/nature05895
ISSN:
00280836
Research Areas
Environmental