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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
business, management and accounting
Forecasting hotel arrivals and occupancy using Monte Carlo simulation
Journal of Revenue and Pricing Management, Volume 10, No. 4, Year 2011
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Description
Forecasting hotel arrivals and occupancy is an important component in hotel revenue management systems. In this article, we propose a new Monte Carlo simulation approach for the arrivals and occupancy forecasting problem. In this approach, we simulate the hotel reservations process forward in time, and these future Monte Carlo paths will yield forecast densities. A key step for the faithful emulation of the reservations process is the accurate estimation of its parameters. We propose an approach for the estimation of these parameters from the historical data. Then, the reservations process will be simulated forward with all its constituent processes such as reservation arrivals, cancellations, length of stay, no shows, group reservations, seasonality, trend and so on. We considered as a case study the problem of forecasting room demand for Plaza Hotel, Alexandria, Egypt. The proposed model gives superior results compared to existing approaches. © 2011 Macmillan Publishers Ltd.
Authors & Co-Authors
Zakhary, Athanasius
Egypt, Giza
Faculty of Computers and Artificial Intelligence
Atiya, Amir F.
Egypt, Cairo
Faculty of Engineering
El-Shishiny, Hisham Emad Din
Egypt, Giza
Ibm, Egypt
El Gayar, Neamat
Egypt, Giza
Faculty of Computers and Artificial Intelligence
Statistics
Citations: 89
Authors: 4
Affiliations: 3
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1057/rpm.2009.42
e-ISSN:
1477657X
Study Design
Case Study
Study Approach
Qualitative
Study Locations
Egypt