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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
general
Phylogenetic trees and the future of mammalian biodiversity
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Volume 105, No. SUPPL. 1, Year 2008
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Description
Phylogenies describe the origins and history of species. However, they can also help to predict species' fates and so can be useful tools for managing the future of biodiversity. This article starts by sketching how phylogenetic, geographic, and trait information can be combined to elucidate present mammalian diversity patterns and how they arose. Recent diversification rates and standing diversity show different geographic patterns, indicating that cradles of diversity have moved over time. Patterns in extinction risk reflect both biological differences among mammalian lineages and differences in threat intensity among regions. Phylogenetic comparative analyses indicate that for small-bodied mammals, extinction risk is governed mostly by where the species live and the intensity of the threats, whereas for large-bodied mammals, ecological differences also play an important role. This modeling approach identifies species whose intrinsic biology renders them particularly vulnerable to increased human pressure. We outline how the approach might be extended to consider future trends in anthropogenic drivers, to identify likely future battlegrounds of mammalian conservation, and the likely casualties. This framework could help to highlight consequences of choosing among different future climatic and socioeconomic scenarios. We end by discussing priority-setting, showing how alternative currencies for diversity can suggest very different priorities. We argue that aiming to maximize long-term evolutionary responses is inappropriate, that conservation planning needs to consider costs as well as benefits, and that proactive conservation of largely intact systems should be part of a balanced strategy. © 2008 by The National Academy of Sciences of the USA.
Authors & Co-Authors
Davies, T. Jonathan
United States, Santa Barbara
University of California, Santa Barbara
Fritz, Susanne A.
United Kingdom, London
Imperial College London
Grenyer, Richard
United Kingdom, Swindon
Natural Environment Research Council
Orme, C. David L.
United Kingdom, London
Imperial College London
Bielby, Jon
United Kingdom, London
Imperial College London
United Kingdom, London
Zoological Society of London
Bininda-Emonds, Olaf R.P.
Germany, Oldenburg
Universität Oldenburg
Jones, Kate E.
United Kingdom, London
Zoological Society of London
Gittleman, John L.
United States, Athens
University of Georgia
Mace, Georgina M.
United Kingdom, Swindon
Natural Environment Research Council
Purvis, Andy
United Kingdom, London
Imperial College London
Statistics
Citations: 157
Authors: 10
Affiliations: 7
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1073/pnas.0801917105
ISSN:
00278424
Research Areas
Environmental