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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
medicine
The transmission dynamics of groups A and B human respiratory syncytial virus (hRSV) in England & Wales and Finland: Seasonality and cross-protection
Epidemiology and Infection, Volume 133, No. 2, Year 2005
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Description
Human respiratory syncytial virus (hRSV) transmission dynamics are inherently cyclical, and the observed genetic diversity (between groups A and B) also appears to have a repeating pattern. A key unknown is the extent to which genetic variants interact immunologically, and thus impact on epidemiology. We developed a novel mathematical model for hRSV transmission including seasonal forcing of incidence and temporary intra- and inter-group partial immunity. Simultaneous model fits to data from two locations (England & Wales, UK, and Turku, Finland) successfully reproduced the contrasting infection dynamics and group A/B dominance patterns. Parameter estimates are consistent with direct estimates. Differences in the magnitude and seasonal variation in contact rate between the two populations alone could account for the variation in dynamics between these populations. The A/B group dominance patterns are explained by reductions in susceptibility to and infectiousness of secondary homologous and heterologous infections. The consequences of the observed dynamic complexity are discussed. © 2004 Cambridge University Press.
Authors & Co-Authors
White, Lisa J.
United Kingdom, Coventry
University of Warwick
Kenya, Nairobi
Kenya Medical Research Institute
Waris, Matti
Finland, Turku
Turun Yliopisto
Cane, Patricia A.
United Kingdom, Birmingham
Birmingham Medical School
Nokes, David James
United Kingdom, Coventry
University of Warwick
Kenya, Nairobi
Kenya Medical Research Institute
Medley, Graham F.
United Kingdom, Coventry
University of Warwick
Statistics
Citations: 120
Authors: 5
Affiliations: 4
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1017/S0950268804003450
ISSN:
09502688
Research Areas
Genetics And Genomics
Study Design
Cohort Study