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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
earth and planetary sciences
Conditional exceedance probabilities
Monthly Weather Review, Volume 135, No. 2, Year 2007
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Description
Probabilistic forecasts of variables measured on a categorical or ordinal scale, such as precipitation occurrence or temperatures exceeding a threshold, are typically verified by comparing the relative frequency with which the target event occurs given different levels of forecast confidence. The degree to which this conditional (on the forecast probability) relative frequency of an event corresponds with the actual forecast probabilities is known as reliability, or calibration. Forecast reliability for binary variables can be measured using the Murphy decomposition of the (half) Brier score, and can be presented graphically using reliability and attributes diagrams. For forecasts of variables on continuous scales, however, an alternative measure of reliability is required. The binned probability histogram and the reliability component of the continuous ranked probability score have been proposed as appropriate verification procedures in this context, but are subject to some limitations. A procedure is proposed that is applicable in the context of forecast ensembles and is an extension of the binned probability histogram. Individual ensemble members are treated as estimates of quantiles of the forecast distribution, and the conditional probability that the observed precipitation, for example, exceeds the amount forecast [the conditional exceedance probability (CEP)] is calculated. Generalized linear regression is used to estimate these conditional probabilities. A diagram showing the CEPs for ranked ensemble members is suggested as a useful method for indicating reliability when forecasts are on a continuous scale, and various statistical tests are suggested for quantifying the reliability. © 2007 American Meteorological Society.
Authors & Co-Authors
Mason, Simon J.
United States, Palisades
International Research Institute for Climate and Society
Galpin, Jacqueline Suzanne
South Africa, Johannesburg
University of the Witwatersrand
Goddard, Lisa
United States, Palisades
International Research Institute for Climate and Society
Graham, Nicholas E.
United States, La Jolla
Scripps Institution of Oceanography
Rajartnam, Balakanapathy
United States, Ithaca
Cornell University
Statistics
Citations: 30
Authors: 5
Affiliations: 4
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1175/MWR3284.1
ISSN:
00270644