Risk scores for diabetes and impaired glycaemia in the Middle East and North Africa

Aims To develop risk scores for diabetes and diabetes or impaired glycaemia for individuals living in the Middle East and North Africa region. In addition, to derive national risk scores for Algeria, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and to compare the performance of the regional risk scores with the national risk scores. Methods An opportunistic sample of 6588 individuals aged 30–75 years was screened. Screening consisted of a questionnaire and a clinical examination including measurement of HbA1c. Two regional risk scores and national risk scores for each of the three countries were derived separately by stepwise backwards multiple logistic regression with diabetes [HbA1c ≥ 48 mmol/mol (≥ 6.5%)] and diabetes or impaired glycaemia [HbA1c ≥ 42 mmol/mol (≥ 6.0%)] as outcome. The performance of the regional and national risk scores was compared in data from each country by receiver operating characteristic analysis. Results The eight risk scores all included age and BMI, while additional variables differed between the scores. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves were between 0.67 and 0.70, and for sensitivities approximately 75%; specificities varied between 50% and 57%. The regional and the national risk scores performed equally well in the three national samples. Conclusions Two regional risk scores for diabetes and diabetes or impaired glycaemia applicable to the Middle East and North Africa region were identified. The regional risk scores performed as well as the national risk scores derived in the same manner.