High rates of loss to follow-up during the first year of pre-antiretroviral therapy for HIV patients at sites providing pre-ART care in Nigeria, 2004–2012

Background: With about 3.4 million HIV-infected persons, Nigeria has the second highest number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) in the world. However, antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage in Nigeria remains low with only 748,846 (22%) of PLHIV on ART by the end of 2014. Retention of HIV-infected patients in pre-ART care is essential to ensure timely ART initiation. We assessed outcomes of patients enrolled in Nigeria’s pre-ART program during 2004–2012. Methods: We conducted a nationally representative retrospective cohort study among adults (≥15 years old), enrolling in pre-ART programs supported by the U.S. President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief in Nigeria. A total of 35 sites enrolling ≥50 patients in pre-ART were selected using probability proportional-to-size sampling; 2,415 eligible medical records at these sites were randomly selected for abstraction. Determinants of loss to follow-up (LTFU) and mortality during pre-ART care were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression models. Results: The median age at enrollment was 32 years (interquartile range (IQR) 27–40). A total of 1,216 (51.4%) initiated ART by the time of data abstraction. Among the remaining 1,199 patients, 898 (74.9%) had been LTFU, 180 (15.0%) were alive and in pre-ART care, 71 (5.9%) had died, 50 (4.2%) had transferred out or stopped care. Baseline markers of advanced disease, including weight <45 kg (adjusted hazard ration (AHR) = 4.23; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.51–15.58) and more advanced WHO disease stage, were predictive of pre-ART mortality. Compared with patients aged 15–24, patients aged 35–44 (AHR = 0.67; 95% CI: 1.0.47–0.95) and age 45–54 (AHR = 0.66; 95% CI: 0.48–0.91) had lower LTFU rates. Compared with attending facilities in North Central geopolitical zone, attending facility locations in South East (AHR = 0.44; 95% CI: 0.24–0.83) was protective against LTFU. Conclusions: About half of patients enrolling in HIV program during 2004–2012 in Nigeria had not initiated ART by 2013. Key strategies to improve early ART initiation among pre-ART enrollees include implementation of the WHO test and treat guidelines, earlier HIV testing, and better monitoring to improve ART initiation rates. Further research to understand regional variations in pre-ART outcomes is warranted.