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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
agricultural and biological sciences
A changing climate is eroding the geographical range of the Namib Desert tree Aloe through population declines and dispersal lags
Diversity and Distributions, Volume 13, No. 5, Year 2007
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Description
While poleward species migration in response to recent climatic warming is widely documented, few studies have examined entire range responses of broadly distributed sessile organisms, including changes on both the trailing (equatorward) and the leading (poleward) range edges. From a detailed population census throughout the entire geographical range of Aloe dichotoma Masson, a long-lived Namib Desert tree, together with data from repeat photographs, we present strong evidence that a developing range shift in this species is a 'fingerprint' of anthropogenic climate change. This is explained at a high level of statistical significance by population level impacts of observed regional warming and resulting water balance constraints. Generalized linear models suggest that greater mortalities and population declines in equatorward populations are virtually certainly the result, due to anthropogenic climate change, of the progressive exceedance of critical climate thresholds that are relatively closer to the species' tolerance limits in equatorward sites. Equatorward population declines are also broadly consistent with bioclimatically modelled projections under anticipated anthropogenic climate change but, as yet, there is no evidence of poleward range expansion into the area predicted to become suitable in future, despite good evidence for positive population growth trends in poleward populations. This study is among the first to show a marked lag between trailing edge population extinction and leading edge range expansion in a species experiencing anthropogenic climate change impacts, a pattern likely to apply to most sessile and poorly dispersed organisms. This provides support for conservative assumptions of species' migration rates when modelling climate change impacts for such species. Aloe dichotoma's response to climate change suggests that desert ecosystems may be more sensitive to climate change than previously suspected. © 2007 The Authors.
Authors & Co-Authors
Foden, Wendy B.
South Africa, Pretoria
South African National Biodiversity Institute
South Africa, Cape Town
University of Cape Town
Midgley, Guy F.
South Africa, Pretoria
South African National Biodiversity Institute
United States, Washington
Center for Applied Biodiversity Science
Hughes, Greg O.
United Kingdom, Helsby
Rsk Adas Ltd.
Bond, William J.
South Africa, Cape Town
University of Cape Town
Thuiller, Wilfried
South Africa, Pretoria
South African National Biodiversity Institute
France, Grenoble
Laboratoire D’écologie Alpine Leca
Hoffman, M. Timm
South Africa, Cape Town
University of Cape Town
Kaleme, Prince K.
South Africa, Cape Town
University of Cape Town
Underhill, Leslie Gordon
South Africa, Cape Town
University of Cape Town
Rebelo, Anthony G.
South Africa, Pretoria
South African National Biodiversity Institute
Hannah, Lee
United States, Washington
Center for Applied Biodiversity Science
Statistics
Citations: 200
Authors: 10
Affiliations: 5
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1111/j.1472-4642.2007.00391.x
ISSN:
13669516
e-ISSN:
14724642
Research Areas
Environmental
Study Design
Cross Sectional Study