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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
immunology and microbiology
Modeling the relationship between precipitation and malaria incidence in children from a holoendemic area in Ghana
American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, Volume 84, No. 2, Year 2011
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Description
Climatic factors influence the incidence of vector-borne diseases such as malaria. They modify the abundance of mosquito populations, the length of the extrinsic parasite cycle in the mosquito, the malarial dynamics, and the emergence of epidemics in areas of low endemicity. The objective of this study was to investigate temporal associations between weekly malaria incidence in 1,993 children < 15 years of age and weekly rainfall. A time series analysis was conducted by using cross-correlation function and autoregressive modeling. The regression model showed that the level of rainfall predicted the malaria incidence after a time lag of 9 weeks (mean = 60 days) and after a time lag between one and two weeks. The analyses provide evidence that high-resolution precipitation data can directly predict malaria incidence in a highly endemic area. Such models might enable the development of early warning systems and support intervention measures. Copyright © 2011 by The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.
Authors & Co-Authors
Krefis, Anne C.
Unknown Affiliation
Schwarz, Norbert Georg
Unknown Affiliation
Krueger, Andreas
Unknown Affiliation
Fobil, Julius Najah
Unknown Affiliation
Nkrumah, Bernard
Unknown Affiliation
Acquah, Samuel
Unknown Affiliation
Loag, Wibke
Unknown Affiliation
Sarpong, Nimako
Unknown Affiliation
Adu-Sarkodie, Yaw A.
Unknown Affiliation
Ranft, Ulrich
Unknown Affiliation
May, Juergen ü.
Unknown Affiliation
Statistics
Citations: 87
Authors: 11
Affiliations: 5
Identifiers
Doi:
10.4269/ajtmh.2011.10-0381
ISSN:
00029637
Research Areas
Environmental
Health System And Policy
Infectious Diseases
Maternal And Child Health
Study Design
Randomised Control Trial
Cohort Study
Study Locations
Ghana