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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
Predicting the risk of hospital admission in older persons - Validation of a brief self-administered questionnaire in three European countries
Journal of the American Geriatrics Society, Volume 54, No. 8, Year 2006
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Description
OBJECTIVES: To validate the Probability of Repeated Admission (Pra) questionnaire, a widely used self-administered tool for predicting future healthcare use in older persons, in three European healthcare systems. DESIGN: Prospective study with 1-year follow-up. SETTING: Hamburg, Germany; London, United Kingdom; Canton of Solothurn, Switzerland. PARTICIPANTS: Nine thousand seven hundred thirteen independently living community-dwelling people aged 65 and older. MEASUREMENTS: Self-administered eight-item Pra questionnaire at baseline. Self-reported number of hospital admissions and physician visits during 1 year of follow-up. RESULTS: In the combined sample, areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) were 0.64 (95% confidence interval (CI)=0.62-0.66) for the prediction of one or more hospital admissions and 0.68 (95% CI=0.66-0.69) for the prediction of more than six physician visits during the following year. AUCs were similar between sites. In comparison, prediction models based on a person's age and sex alone exhibited poor predictive validity (AUC ≦ 0.57). High-risk individuals (Pra score ≧ 0.5) were 2.3 times as likely (95% CI=2.1-2.6) as low-risk individuals to have a hospital admission, and 2.1 times as likely (95% CI=2.0-2.2) to have more than six physician visits. CONCLUSION: The Pra instrument exhibits good validity for predicting future health service use on a population level in different healthcare settings. Administrative data have shown similar predictive validity, but in practice, such data are often not available. The Pra is likely of high interest to governments and health insurance companies worldwide as a basis for programs aimed at health risk management in older persons. © 2006, Copyright the Authors.
Authors & Co-Authors
Bachmann, Lucas M.
Switzerland, Bern
University of Bern
Switzerland, Zurich
Universität Zürich
Egger, Matthias
Switzerland, Bern
University of Bern
Stuck, Andreas Ernst
Switzerland, Bern
University of Bern
Switzerland, Bern
University Hospital Bern
Statistics
Citations: 44
Authors: 3
Affiliations: 7
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1111/j.1532-5415.2006.00829.x
ISSN:
15325415
Research Areas
Health System And Policy
Study Design
Cross Sectional Study
Cohort Study