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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
general
Incubation periods impact the spatial predictability of cholera and Ebola outbreaks in Sierra Leone
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Volume 117, No. 9, Year 2020
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Description
Forecasting the spatiotemporal spread of infectious diseases during an outbreak is an important component of epidemic response. However, it remains challenging both methodologically and with respect to data requirements, as disease spread is influenced by numerous factors, including the pathogen's underlying transmission parameters and epidemiological dynamics, social networks and population connectivity, and environmental conditions. Here, using data from Sierra Leone, we analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics of recent cholera and Ebola outbreaks and compare and contrast the spread of these two pathogens in the same population. We develop a simulation model of the spatial spread of an epidemic in order to examine the impact of a pathogen's incubation period on the dynamics of spread and the predictability of outbreaks. We find that differences in the incubation period alone can determine the limits of predictability for diseases with different natural history, both empirically and in our simulations. Our results show that diseases with longer incubation periods, such as Ebola, where infected individuals can travel farther before becoming infectious, result in more long-distance sparking events and less predictable disease trajectories, as compared to the more predictable wave-like spread of diseases with shorter incubation periods, such as cholera. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Available Materials
https://efashare.b-cdn.net/share/pmc/articles/PMC7060667/bin/pnas.1913052117.sm01.avi
https://efashare.b-cdn.net/share/pmc/articles/PMC7060667/bin/pnas.1913052117.sapp.pdf
Authors & Co-Authors
Kahn, Rebecca J.
United States, Boston
Harvard T.h. Chan School of Public Health
Peak, Corey M.
United States, Boston
Harvard T.h. Chan School of Public Health
Fernández-Gracia, Juan
United States, Boston
Harvard T.h. Chan School of Public Health
Spain, Palma
Csic-uib - Instituto de Fisica Interdisciplinar y Sistemas Complejos Ifisc
Jambai, Amara A.
United States, Atlanta
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Ganda, Louisa
United States, Atlanta
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Castro, Marcia Caldas
United States, Boston
Harvard T.h. Chan School of Public Health
Buckee, Caroline O.Flaherty
United States, Boston
Harvard T.h. Chan School of Public Health
Statistics
Citations: 15
Authors: 7
Affiliations: 4
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1073/pnas.1913052117
ISSN:
00278424
Research Areas
Infectious Diseases
Study Design
Cross Sectional Study
Study Locations
Sierra Leone