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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
environmental science
The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century
Global Environmental Change, Volume 42, Year 2017
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Description
Studies of global environmental change make extensive use of scenarios to explore how the future can evolve under a consistent set of assumptions. The recently developed Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) create a framework for the study of climate-related scenario outcomes. Their five narratives span a wide range of worlds that vary in their challenges for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Here we provide background on the quantification that has been selected to serve as the reference, or ‘marker’, implementation for SSP2. The SSP2 narrative describes a middle-of-the-road development in the mitigation and adaptation challenges space. We explain how the narrative has been translated into quantitative assumptions in the IIASA Integrated Assessment Modelling Framework. We show that our SSP2 marker implementation occupies a central position for key metrics along the mitigation and adaptation challenge dimensions. For many dimensions the SSP2 marker implementation also reflects an extension of the historical experience, particularly in terms of carbon and energy intensity improvements in its baseline. This leads to a steady emissions increase over the 21st century, with projected end-of-century warming nearing 4 °C relative to preindustrial levels. On the other hand, SSP2 also shows that global-mean temperature increase can be limited to below 2 °C, pending stringent climate policies throughout the world. The added value of the SSP2 marker implementation for the wider scientific community is that it can serve as a starting point to further explore integrated solutions for achieving multiple societal objectives in light of the climate adaptation and mitigation challenges that society could face over the 21st century. © 2016 The Authors
Authors & Co-Authors
Fricko, Oliver
Austria, Laxenburg
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg
Havlik, Petr
Austria, Laxenburg
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg
Klimont, Zbigniew
Austria, Laxenburg
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg
Gusti, Mykola
Austria, Laxenburg
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg
Ukraine, Lviv
Lviv Polytechnic National University
Johnson, Nils
Austria, Laxenburg
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg
Valin, Hugo
Austria, Laxenburg
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg
Amann, Markus Christian
Austria, Laxenburg
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg
Herrero, Mario
Australia, Canberra
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
Kindermann, Georg Erich
Austria, Laxenburg
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg
Krey, Volker
Austria, Laxenburg
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg
Obersteiner, Michael H.
Austria, Laxenburg
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg
Pachauri, Shonali
Austria, Laxenburg
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg
Rao, Shilpa
Austria, Laxenburg
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg
Schmid, Erwin
Austria, Vienna
Universitat Fur Bodenkultur Wien
Riahi, Keywan
Austria, Laxenburg
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg
Austria, Graz
Technische Universitat Graz
Statistics
Citations: 527
Authors: 15
Affiliations: 5
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.06.004
ISSN:
09593780
Research Areas
Environmental
Study Design
Narrative Study
Study Approach
Qualitative
Quantitative