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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
general
Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy
Nature, Volume 585, No. 7826, Year 2020
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Description
Increased efforts are required to prevent further losses to terrestrial biodiversity and the ecosystem services that it provides1,2. Ambitious targets have been proposed, such as reversing the declining trends in biodiversity3; however, just feeding the growing human population will make this a challenge4. Here we use an ensemble of land-use and biodiversity models to assess whether—and how—humanity can reverse the declines in terrestrial biodiversity caused by habitat conversion, which is a major threat to biodiversity5. We show that immediate efforts, consistent with the broader sustainability agenda but of unprecedented ambition and coordination, could enable the provision of food for the growing human population while reversing the global terrestrial biodiversity trends caused by habitat conversion. If we decide to increase the extent of land under conservation management, restore degraded land and generalize landscape-level conservation planning, biodiversity trends from habitat conversion could become positive by the mid-twenty-first century on average across models (confidence interval, 2042–2061), but this was not the case for all models. Food prices could increase and, on average across models, almost half (confidence interval, 34–50%) of the future biodiversity losses could not be avoided. However, additionally tackling the drivers of land-use change could avoid conflict with affordable food provision and reduces the environmental effects of the food-provision system. Through further sustainable intensification and trade, reduced food waste and more plant-based human diets, more than two thirds of future biodiversity losses are avoided and the biodiversity trends from habitat conversion are reversed by 2050 for almost all of the models. Although limiting further loss will remain challenging in several biodiversity-rich regions, and other threats—such as climate change—must be addressed to truly reverse the declines in biodiversity, our results show that ambitious conservation efforts and food system transformation are central to an effective post-2020 biodiversity strategy. © 2020, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
Authors & Co-Authors
Obersteiner, Michael H.
Austria, Laxenburg
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg
United Kingdom, Oxford
University of Oxford
Butchart, Stuart H.M.
United Kingdom, Cambridge
Birdlife International
United Kingdom, Cambridge
University of Cambridge
Chaudhary, Abhishek
Switzerland, Zurich
Eth Zürich
India, Kanpur
Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur
De Palma, Adriana
United Kingdom, London
The Natural History Museum, London
DeClerck, Fabrice A.J.
Italy, Rome
Bioversity International
Di Marco, Moreno
Australia, Canberra
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
Italy, Rome
Sapienza Università Di Roma
Doelman, Jonathan C.
Netherlands, The Hague
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Freeman, Robin
United Kingdom, London
Zoological Society of London Institute of Zoology
Harfoot, Michael B.J.
United Kingdom, Cambridge
United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre
Hellweg, S.
Switzerland, Zurich
Eth Zürich
Hilbers, Jelle Peter
Netherlands, The Hague
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Netherlands, Nijmegen
Radboud Universiteit
Hill, Samantha L.L.
United Kingdom, London
The Natural History Museum, London
United Kingdom, Cambridge
United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre
Humpenöder, Florian
Germany, Potsdam
Potsdam Institut Fur Klimafolgenforschung
Jennings, Nancy Vaughan
Unknown Affiliation
Mace, Georgina M.
United Kingdom, London
University College London
Popp, Alexander
Germany, Potsdam
Potsdam Institut Fur Klimafolgenforschung
Purvis, Andy
United Kingdom, London
The Natural History Museum, London
United Kingdom, London
Imperial College London
Schipper, Aafke M.
Netherlands, The Hague
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Netherlands, Nijmegen
Radboud Universiteit
Valin, Hugo
Austria, Laxenburg
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg
Visconti, Piero
Austria, Laxenburg
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg
United Kingdom, London
Zoological Society of London Institute of Zoology
United Kingdom, London
University College London
Alkemade, Rob
Netherlands, The Hague
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Netherlands, Wageningen
Wageningen University & Research
Almond, Rosamunde E.A.
Netherlands, Zeist
Wwf-netherlands
Bunting, Gill
United Kingdom, Cambridge
Birdlife International
Burgess, Neil David
United Kingdom, Cambridge
United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre
Cornell, Sarah E.
Sweden, Stockholm
Stockholm Resilience Centre
Ferrier, Simon
Australia, Canberra
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
Fritz, Steffen
Austria, Laxenburg
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg
Havlik, Petr
Austria, Laxenburg
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg
Herrero, Mario
Australia, Canberra
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
Hoskins, Andrew J.
Australia, Canberra
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
Jung, Martin
Austria, Laxenburg
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg
Kram, Tom
Netherlands, The Hague
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Lotze-Campen, Hermann
Germany, Potsdam
Potsdam Institut Fur Klimafolgenforschung
Germany, Berlin
Humboldt-universität zu Berlin
Meyer, Carsten
Germany, Leipzig
German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research Idiv Halle-jena-leipzig
Germany, Leipzig
Universität Leipzig
Nel, Deon C.
Switzerland, Gland
Wwf International
Sweden, Stockholm
Stockholm Resilience Centre
Newbold, Tim
United Kingdom, London
University College London
Schmidt-Traub, Guido
Unknown Affiliation
Stehfest, Elke
Netherlands, The Hague
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Strassburg, Bernardo Baeta Neves
Brazil, Rio de Janeiro
Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro
Brazil, Rio de Janeiro
International Institute for Sustainability
Van Vuuren, Detlef P.
Netherlands, The Hague
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Netherlands, Utrecht
Universiteit Utrecht
Ware, Chris J.
Australia, Canberra
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
Watson, James E.M.
Australia, Brisbane
The University of Queensland
United States, New York
Wildlife Conservation Society
Statistics
Citations: 345
Authors: 42
Affiliations: 34
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1038/s41586-020-2705-y
ISSN:
00280836
Research Areas
Environmental
Food Security
Study Design
Cross Sectional Study