Governing green industrialisation in Africa: Assessing key parameters for a sustainable socio-technical transition in the context of Ethiopia

The concept of ‘sustainable industrialisation’ is now integral to the UN's Sustainable Development Goals. However, there are no historical examples or current models to emulate. Scholarly analyses of putative initiatives to green industrialisation, especially in developing countries, are few and limited. This article explores the conception and implementation of green industrialisation in Ethiopia, one of the world's poorest nations, where an ambitious Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) strategy has been created, alongside a multi-sectoral Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP), to leapfrog environmentally unsustainable development and bring the country to middle-income status by 2025. Using the socio-technical transition (STT) perspective and in particular Smith, Stirling, and Berkhout (2005) framework for assessing sustainable transition programmes, it analyzes the ‘selection pressures’ on the industrial ‘regime’ and its ‘adaptive capacity’. It finds: (i) clear articulation of the imperative for climate change mitigation and economic growth; (ii) strong high-level government commitment to a greening agenda within the context of accelerated industrialisation; and (iii) a nascent innovation system that is beginning to evolve according to these priorities. However, the analysis also identifies important challenges, including: coordination mechanisms between different stakeholders; framing issues; availability of resources; and ongoing tension between addressing climate change and promoting economic growth. It also highlights the importance of the availability of cross-border resources for purposive sustainability transition within low-income countries.