Ecological footprint analysis of the phosphorus industry in China

Mitigating the effects of environmental deterioration requires a focus on not just CO2 emissions from energy consumption, but also environmental pollution from industry sectors. To reach this goal, recent studies have extended ecological footprint (EF) analysis to identify the ecological drivers of various key industry sectors. The role of the phosphorus (P) industry on the EF within the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) framework for China is the emphasis of this study. Autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) as well as the impulse response function and robustness analysis were used to consider a time from 1985 to 2018. The study verifies the EKC hypothesis for China in both the long and the short run, and indispensable determinants are proposed to be included to assure the model’s fitness and robustness when conducting EF analysis of industry sectors. Energy consumption–based carbon emissions have been verified as the dominant contributor to EF, but P use and urbanization have a significant lagged positive influence on EF in the short run. P exports, in particular, have been highlighted as a critical driver of the EF of China’s P industry. The conducted frequency domain causality test reinforced the above findings and demonstrated bidirectional causality at different frequencies. This work suggests that formulating plausible P export policies to alleviate the conflict between the output of China’s P industry and the environmental sustainability of this industry are necessary. In this context, “multidisciplinary, multidimensional, and practical solutions” are most desirable for sustainable P management.