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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
immunology and microbiology
Evaluation of geospatial methods to generate subnational HIV prevalence estimates for local level planning
AIDS, Volume 30, No. 9, Year 2016
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Description
Objective: There is evidence of substantial subnational variation in the HIV epidemic. However, robust spatial HIV data are often only available at high levels of geographic aggregation and not at the finer resolution needed for decision making. Therefore, spatial analysis methods that leverage available data to provide local estimates of HIV prevalence may be useful. Such methods exist but have not been formally compared when applied to HIV. Design/methods: Six candidate methods-including those used by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS to generate maps and a Bayesian geostatistical approach applied to other diseases-were used to generate maps and subnational estimates of HIV prevalence across three countries using cluster level data from household surveys. Two approaches were used to assess the accuracy of predictions: internal validation, whereby a proportion of input data is held back (test dataset) to challenge predictions; and comparison with location-specific data from household surveys in earlier years. Results: Each of the methods can generate usefully accurate predictions of prevalence at unsampled locations, with the magnitude of the error in predictions similar across approaches. However, the Bayesian geostatistical approach consistently gave marginally the strongest statistical performance across countries and validation procedures. Conclusions: Available methods may be able to furnish estimates of HIV prevalence at finer spatial scales than the data currently allow. The subnational variation revealed can be integrated into planning to ensure responsiveness to the spatial features of the epidemic. The Bayesian geostatistical approach is a promising strategy for integrating HIV data to generate robust local estimates. Copyright © 2016 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.
Authors & Co-Authors
Hallett, Timothy B.
United Kingdom, London
Imperial College London
Anderson, Sarah Jane
United Kingdom, London
Imperial College London
Bhatt, S. M.
United Kingdom, Oxford
University of Oxford
Burgert, Clara R.
United States, Fairfax
Icf International Inc.
Cuadros, Diego Fernando
Qatar, Doha
Weill Cornell Medicine-qatar
Dzangare, Janet
Zimbabwe, Harare
Ministry of Health and Child Welfare Zimbabwe
Fecht, Daniela
United Kingdom, London
Imperial College London
Gething, Peter W.
United Kingdom, Oxford
University of Oxford
Ghys, Peter Denis
Switzerland, Geneva
Unaids
Heard, Nathan Joseph
United States, Washington, D.c.
U.s. Department of State
Kalipeni, Ezekiel
United States, Urbana
University of Illinois Urbana-champaign
Kandala, Ngianga Bakwin
United Kingdom, Newcastle
University of Northumbria
Kim, Andrea A.
United States, Atlanta
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Larmarange, Joseph
France, Marseille
Ird Institut de Recherche Pour le Developpement
Manda, Samuel Om M.
South Africa, Tygerberg
South African Medical Research Council
South Africa, Durban
University of Kwazulu-natal
Moise, Imelda K.
United States, Coral Gables
University of Miami
Montana, Livia S.
United States, Cambridge
Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies
Mwai, Daniel N.
Australia, Brisbane
Palladium Group Holdings Pty Ltd
Kenya, Nairobi
Health Policy Project
Mwalili, Samuel Musili
United States, Atlanta
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Tanser, Frank C.
South Africa, Durban
Africa Health Research Institute
South Africa, Durban
University of Kwazulu-natal
Wanyeki, Ian
Kenya, Nairobi
Futures Group
Zulu, Leo Charles
United States, East Lansing
Michigan State University
Statistics
Citations: 31
Authors: 22
Affiliations: 23
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1097/QAD.0000000000001075
ISSN:
02699370
Research Areas
Infectious Diseases
Study Design
Cross Sectional Study