Meeting international poverty targets in Tanzania

This article considers the prospects for Tanzania in achieving the international development targets, especially those relating to reductions in absolute poverty. A key conclusion is that the analysis depends on how poverty is defined, in particular what poverty line is used and which data sets define the base line. There is no officially recognised Tanzanian poverty line and even the use of the international poverty line, of US$1 per person per day measured at purchasing power parities, presents difficulties because of the lack of recent reliable data on purchasing power parity. Despite substantial efforts in Tanzania in recent years to collect poverty-related data, the data sets are not directly comparable and there seem to be substantial inconsistencies in the methods used. Different surveys result in very different estimates of poverty levels and poverty growth elasticities. Considerable care is therefore required in interpreting the results of these surveys and further work is needed to improve the database before more precise statements can be made. Current best estimates suggest that sustained economic growth in the order of between 5 and 7% per year will be needed over the next 15 years if a 50% reduction in the numbers of people below the $1 per day poverty line is to be achieved. The key requirement is to reduce rural poverty and this will require sustained investment in rural infrastructure and both intensification and diversification in agriculture.