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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
agricultural and biological sciences
Use of Bayesian modelling in risk assessment: Application to growth of Listeria monocytogenes and food flora in cold-smoked salmon
International Journal of Food Microbiology, Volume 106, No. 2, Year 2006
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Description
An attempt to use a Bayesian approach to model variability and uncertainty separately in microbial growth in a risk assessment is presented. It was conducted within the framework of a French project aiming at assessing the exposure to Listeria monocytogenes in cold-smoked salmon. The chosen model describes the effect of time and temperature on bacterial growth. A Bayesian approach close to the one proposed by Pouillot et al. [Int. J. Food Microbiol. 81 (2003) 87] is used to estimate the variability and uncertainty of growth parameters from both literature data and data experimentally acquired during the project. Variability between strains and between products is taken into account. The growth of the food flora of cold-smoked salmon is also modelled by the same method. The results obtained for both models are used to predict the simultaneous growth of L. monocytogenes and food flora in cold-smoked salmon with a competitive model, expressing variability and uncertainty through a second-order Monte Carlo simulation. © 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Authors & Co-Authors
Delignette-Muller, M. L.
France, Marcy-l'etoile
Vetagro Sup
Cornu, M.
France, Maisons-alfort
Afssa Agence Française de Sécurité Sanitaire Des Aliments
Pouillot, R.
Cameroon, Yaounde
Centre Pasteur du Cameroun
Denis, Jean Baptiste
France, Jouy-en-josas
Centre de Recherche Inrae Île-de-france - Jouy-en-josas - Antony
Statistics
Citations: 106
Authors: 4
Affiliations: 4
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1016/j.ijfoodmicro.2005.06.021
ISSN:
01681605
Research Areas
Food Security