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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
Estimation of the global prevalence of dementia in 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
The Lancet Public Health, Volume 7, No. 2, Year 2022
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Description
Background: Given the projected trends in population ageing and population growth, the number of people with dementia is expected to increase. In addition, strong evidence has emerged supporting the importance of potentially modifiable risk factors for dementia. Characterising the distribution and magnitude of anticipated growth is crucial for public health planning and resource prioritisation. This study aimed to improve on previous forecasts of dementia prevalence by producing country-level estimates and incorporating information on selected risk factors. Methods: We forecasted the prevalence of dementia attributable to the three dementia risk factors included in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 (high body-mass index, high fasting plasma glucose, and smoking) from 2019 to 2050, using relative risks and forecasted risk factor prevalence to predict GBD risk-attributable prevalence in 2050 globally and by world region and country. Using linear regression models with education included as an additional predictor, we then forecasted the prevalence of dementia not attributable to GBD risks. To assess the relative contribution of future trends in GBD risk factors, education, population growth, and population ageing, we did a decomposition analysis. Findings: We estimated that the number of people with dementia would increase from 57·4 (95% uncertainty interval 50·4–65·1) million cases globally in 2019 to 152·8 (130·8–175·9) million cases in 2050. Despite large increases in the projected number of people living with dementia, age-standardised both-sex prevalence remained stable between 2019 and 2050 (global percentage change of 0·1% [–7·5 to 10·8]). We estimated that there were more women with dementia than men with dementia globally in 2019 (female-to-male ratio of 1·69 [1·64–1·73]), and we expect this pattern to continue to 2050 (female-to-male ratio of 1·67 [1·52–1·85]). There was geographical heterogeneity in the projected increases across countries and regions, with the smallest percentage changes in the number of projected dementia cases in high-income Asia Pacific (53% [41–67]) and western Europe (74% [58–90]), and the largest in north Africa and the Middle East (367% [329–403]) and eastern sub-Saharan Africa (357% [323–395]). Projected increases in cases could largely be attributed to population growth and population ageing, although their relative importance varied by world region, with population growth contributing most to the increases in sub-Saharan Africa and population ageing contributing most to the increases in east Asia. Interpretation: Growth in the number of individuals living with dementia underscores the need for public health planning efforts and policy to address the needs of this group. Country-level estimates can be used to inform national planning efforts and decisions. Multifaceted approaches, including scaling up interventions to address modifiable risk factors and investing in research on biological mechanisms, will be key in addressing the expected increases in the number of individuals affected by dementia. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Gates Ventures. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Available Materials
https://efashare.b-cdn.net/share/pmc/articles/PMC8810394/bin/mmc1.pdf
Authors & Co-Authors
Nichols, Emma L.
Unknown Affiliation
Steinmetz, Jaimie D.
Unknown Affiliation
Vollset, Stein Emil
Unknown Affiliation
Fukutaki, Kai Glenn
Unknown Affiliation
Abd-Allah, Foad
Unknown Affiliation
Abdoli, Amir
Unknown Affiliation
Abualhasan, Ahmed
Unknown Affiliation
Abu-Gharbieh, Eman F.
Unknown Affiliation
Akram, Tayyaba Tayyaba
Unknown Affiliation
Al Hamad, Hanadi A.
Unknown Affiliation
Alahdab, Fares
Unknown Affiliation
Alanezi, Fahad Mashhour
Unknown Affiliation
Alipour, Vahid
Unknown Affiliation
Almustanyir, Sami
Unknown Affiliation
Amu, Hubert
Unknown Affiliation
Ansari, Iman
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Arabloo, Jalal
Unknown Affiliation
Ashraf, Tahira
Unknown Affiliation
Astell–burt, Thomas
Unknown Affiliation
Ayano, Getinet
Unknown Affiliation
Ayuso-Mateos, J. L.
Unknown Affiliation
Baig, Atif Amin
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Barnett, Anthony
Unknown Affiliation
Barrow, Amadou
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Baune, Bernhard T.
Unknown Affiliation
Bejot, Y.
Unknown Affiliation
Bezabhe, Woldesellassie Mequanint
Unknown Affiliation
Bezabih, Yihienew Mequanint
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Bhagavathula, Akshaya Srikanth
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Bhaskar, Sonu M.M.
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Bhattacharyya, Krittika
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Bijani, Ali
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Biswas, Atanu
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Bolla, Srinivasa Rao
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Boloor, Archith
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Brayne, C. E.G.
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Brenner, Hermann
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Burkart, Katrin G.
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Burns, Richard Andrew
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Cámera, Luis Alberto
Unknown Affiliation
Cao, Chao
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Carvalho, Félix Dias
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Castro-De-Araujo, Luís Fernando Silva
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Catalá-López, Ferran
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Cerin, Ester
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Chavan, Prachi P.
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Cherbuin, Nicolas
Unknown Affiliation
Chu, Dinh Toi
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Costa, Vera M.
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Couto, Rosa A.S.
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Dadras, Omid
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Dai, Xiaochen
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Dandona, Lalit
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Dandona, Rakhi
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de la Cruz-Góngora, Vanessa Vianey
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Dhamnetiya, Deepak
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Dias Da Silva, Diana
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Diaz, D.
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Douiri, Abdel
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Edvardsson, Jan David
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Ekholuenetale, Michael
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El Sayed, Iman
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El-Jaafary, Shaimaa I.
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Eskandari, Khalil
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Eskandarieh, Sharareh
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Fares, Jawad Y.
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Faro, Andre
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Feigin, Valery L.
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Feng, Xiaoqi Qi
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Fereshtehnejad, Seyed Mohammad
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Fernandes, Eduarda G.R.
Unknown Affiliation
Ferrara, Pietro
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Filip, Irina
Unknown Affiliation
Fischer, Florian
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Gaidhane, Shilpa A.
Unknown Affiliation
Ghashghaee, Ahmad
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Ghith, Nermin
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Gialluisi, Alessandro
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Gilani, Syed Amir
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Petcu, Ionela Roxana
Unknown Affiliation
Gnedovskaya, E. V.
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Gupta, Rajeev C.
Unknown Affiliation
Gupta, Veer Bala
Unknown Affiliation
Gupta, Vivek Kumar
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Haider, Mohammad Rifat
Unknown Affiliation
Hall, Brian James
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Hamidi, Samer A.
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Hanif, Asif
Unknown Affiliation
Hankey, Graeme J.
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Haque, Shafiul
Unknown Affiliation
Hartono, Risky Kusuma
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Hasaballah, Ahmed I.
Unknown Affiliation
Hasan, M. Tasdik
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Hasan, Amr
Unknown Affiliation
Hay, Simon I.
Unknown Affiliation
Hayat, Khezar
Unknown Affiliation
Hegazy, Mohamed I.
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Heidari, Golnaz
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Heidari-Soureshjani, Reza
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Househ, Mowafa Said
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Hussain, R.
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Hwang, Bingfang
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Iacoviello, Licia
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Iavicoli, Ivo
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Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen
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Ilic, Irena M.
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Ilic, Milena D.
Unknown Affiliation
Naghibi Irvani, Seyed Sina
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Iso, Hiroyasu
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Iwagami, Masao
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Jabbarinejad, Roxana
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Jacob, Louis Ec
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Jayapal, Sathish Kumar
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Jayawardena, Ranil
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Jonas, Jost Bruno
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Joseph, Nitin
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Kalani, Rizwan E.
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Kandel, Amit
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Kandel, Himal
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Karch, Andre
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Kasa, Ayele Semachew
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Kassie, Gizat M.
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Khan, Moien A.B.
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Khatib, Mahalaqua Nazli
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Khoja, Tawfik Ahmed Muthafer
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Khubchandani, Jagdish
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Kim, Minseo
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Kim, Yun-jin
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Kisa, Adnan
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Kisa, Sezer
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Kivimaki, Mika Shipley
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Koroshetz, Walter J.
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Koyanagi, Ai
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Kumar, G. Anil
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Kumar, Manasi
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Leonardi, Matilde
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Li, Bingyu
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Lim, Stephen S.
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Liu, Xuefeng
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Logroscino, Giancarlo C.
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Lutzky Saute, Ricardo
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Magnani, Francesca Giulia
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Malik, Ahmad Azam
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Massano, João
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Mehndiratta, Man Mohan
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Menezes, Ritesh G.
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Meretoja, Atte P.
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Mohajer, Bahram
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Mohammad, Yousef M.
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Mohammed, Arif
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Mokdad, Ali H.I.
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Mondello, Stefania
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Moni, Mohammad Ali
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Mossie, Tilahun Belete
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Nagel, Gabriële C.
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Naveed, Muhammad
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Nayak, Vinod C.
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Nguyen, Trang Huyen Thi
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Oancea, Bogdan
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Otstavnov Nikita, S.
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Otstavnov, Stanislav S.
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Owolabi, Mayowa O.
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Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra
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Pasovic, Maja
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Peres, Mario F.P.
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Perianayagam, Arokiasamy
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Pinheiro, Marina
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Piradov, Michael A.
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Pottoo, Faheem Hyder
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Prada, Sergio I.
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Radfar, Amir
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Raggi, Alberto
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Rahim, Fakher
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Rahman, Mosiur M.
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Ram, Pradhum
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Rawaf, David Laith
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Rawaf, Salman
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Rezaei, Nima
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Rezapour, Aziz
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Robinson, Stephen R.
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Romoli, Michele
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Roshandel, Gholamreza H.
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Sahathevan, Ramesh
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Sahebkar, Amirhossein
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Sahraian, Mohammad Ali
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Sathian, Brijesh
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Sawhney, Monika
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Saylan, Mete I.
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Shaikh, Masood Ali A.
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Shaji, Kunnukattil S.
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Shigematsu, Mika
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Shin, Jae Il I.
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Shiri, Rahman
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Silva, Diego Augusto Santos
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Silva, João Pedro
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Silva, Renata
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Singh, Jasvinder A.
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Skryabin, Valentin Yurievich
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Skryabina, Anna Aleksandrovna
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Smith, Amanda E.
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Soshnikov, Sergey S.
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Spurlock, Emma Elizabeth
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Stein, Dan J.
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Tabarés-Seisdedos, R. T.
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Tovani-Palone, Marcos Roberto
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Tran, Bach Xuan
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Tsegaye, Gebiyaw Wudie
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Valdez, Pascual Rubén
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Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy
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Vlassov, Vasily V.
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Vu, Giang T.
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Wimo, Anders A.
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Winkler, Andrea Sylvia
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Yamagishi, Kazumasa
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Yang, Lin
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Yano, Yuichiro
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Yu, Chuanhua
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Yunusa, Ismaeel
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Zadey, Siddhesh
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Zastrozhin, Michael Sergeevich
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Zastrozhina, Anasthasia K.
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Zhang, Zhi Jiang
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Murray, Christopher J.L.
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Vos, Theo
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Statistics
Citations: 969
Authors: 224
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1016/S2468-2667(21)00249-8
ISSN:
24682667
Research Areas
Genetics And Genomics
Health System And Policy
Mental Health
Violence And Injury
Study Design
Cross Sectional Study
Study Locations
Multi-countries
Participants Gender
Male
Female