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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
Predicting the risk of avian influenza A H7N9 infection in live-poultry markets across Asia
Nature Communications, Volume 5, Article 4116, Year 2014
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Description
Two epidemic waves of an avian influenza A (H7N9) virus have so far affected China. Most human cases have been attributable to poultry exposure at live-poultry markets, where most positive isolates were sampled. The potential geographic extent of potential re-emerging epidemics is unknown, as are the factors associated with it. Using newly assembled data sets of the locations of 8,943 live-poultry markets in China and maps of environmental correlates, we develop a statistical model that accurately predicts the risk of H7N9 market infection across Asia. Local density of live-poultry markets is the most important predictor of H7N9 infection risk in markets, underscoring their key role in the spatial epidemiology of H7N9, alongside other poultry, land cover and anthropogenic predictor variables. Identification of areas in Asia with high suitability for H7N9 infection enhances our capacity to target biosurveillance and control, helping to restrict the spread of this important disease. © 2014 Macmillan Publishers Limited.
Available Materials
https://efashare.b-cdn.net/share/pmc/articles/PMC4061699/bin/ncomms5116-s1.pdf
Authors & Co-Authors
Gilbert, Marius
Belgium, Brussels
Université Libre de Bruxelles
Belgium, Brussels
Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique - Fnrs
Golding, Nick
United Kingdom, Oxford
University of Oxford
Zhou, Hang
China, Beijing
Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Wint, William G.R.
United Kingdom, Oxford
University of Oxford
Robinson, Timothy P.
Kenya, Nairobi
International Livestock Research Institute Nairobi
Tatem, Andrew J.
United States, Bethesda
National Institutes of Health Nih
United Kingdom, Southampton
University of Southampton
Lai, Shengjie
China, Beijing
Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Zhou, Sheng
China, Beijing
Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Jiang, Hui
China, Beijing
Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Guo, Danhuai
China, Beijing
Chinese Academy of Sciences
Huang, Zhi
United Kingdom, Oxford
University of Oxford
Messina, Jane Paula
United Kingdom, Oxford
University of Oxford
Xiao, Xiangming
United States, Norman
The University of Oklahoma
China, Shanghai
Fudan University
Linard, Catherine
Belgium, Brussels
Université Libre de Bruxelles
Belgium, Brussels
Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique - Fnrs
van Boeckel, Thomas P.
Belgium, Brussels
Université Libre de Bruxelles
Belgium, Brussels
Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique - Fnrs
Martin, Vincent
Senegal, Dakar
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Bhatt, S. M.
United Kingdom, Oxford
University of Oxford
Gething, Peter W.
United Kingdom, Oxford
University of Oxford
Farrar, Jeremy James
Viet Nam, Ho Chi Minh City
Oxford University Clinical Research Unit
Hay, Simon I.
United Kingdom, Oxford
University of Oxford
United States, Bethesda
National Institutes of Health Nih
Yu, Hongjie
China, Beijing
Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Statistics
Citations: 21
Authors: 21
Affiliations: 12
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1038/ncomms5116
e-ISSN:
20411723