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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
A statistical estimator for determining the limits of contemporary and historic phenology
Nature Ecology and Evolution, Volume 1, No. 12, Year 2017
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Description
Climate change affects not just where species are found, but also when species' key life-history events occur-their phenology. Measuring such changes in timing is often hampered by a reliance on biased survey data: surveys identify that an event has taken place (for example, the flower is in bloom), but not when that event happened (for example, the flower bloomed yesterday). Here, we show that this problem can be circumvented using statistical estimators, which can provide accurate and unbiased estimates from sparsely sampled observations. We demonstrate that such methods can resolve an ongoing debate about the relative timings of the onset and cessation of flowering, and allow us to place modern observations reliably within the context of the vast wealth of historical data that reside in herbaria, museum collections, and written records. We also analyse large-scale citizen science data from the United States National Phenology Network and reveal not just earlier but also potentially more variable flowering in recent years. Evidence for greater variability through time is important because increases in variation are characteristic of systems approaching a state change. © 2017 The Author(s).
Authors & Co-Authors
Pearse, William D.
Canada, Montreal
Université Mcgill
Canada, Montreal
Université du Québec à Montréal
United States, Logan
Utah State University
Davis, Charles C.
United States, Cambridge
Harvard University
Inouye, David William
United States, College Park
University of Maryland, College Park
United States, Crested Butte
Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory
Primack, Richard B.
United States, Boston
Boston University
Davies, T. Jonathan
Canada, Montreal
Université Mcgill
Statistics
Citations: 71
Authors: 5
Affiliations: 7
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1038/s41559-017-0350-0
ISSN:
2397334X
Research Areas
Environmental
Study Design
Cross Sectional Study
Study Approach
Quantitative