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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
Initial human transmission dynamics of the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus in North America
Influenza and other Respiratory Viruses, Volume 3, No. 5, Year 2009
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Description
Background: Between 5 and 25 April 2009, pandemic (H1N1) 2009 caused a substantial, severe outbreak in Mexico, and subsequently developed into the first global pandemic in 41years. We determined the reproduction number of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 by analyzing the dynamics of the complete case series in Mexico City during this early period. Methods: We analyzed three mutually exclusive datasets from Mexico City Distrito Federal which constituted all suspect cases from 15 March to 25 April: confirmed pandemic (H1N1) 2009 infections, non-pandemic influenza A infections and patients who tested negative for influenza. We estimated the initial reproduction number from 497 suspect cases identified prior to 20 April, using a novel contact network methodology incorporating dates of symptom onset and hospitalization, variation in contact rates, extrinsic sociological factors, and uncertainties in underreporting and disease progression. We tested the robustness of this estimate using both the subset of laboratory-confirmed pandemic (H1N1) 2009 infections and an extended case series through 25 April, adjusted for suspected ascertainment bias. Results: The initial reproduction number (95% confidence interval range) for this novel virus is 1.51 (1.32-1.71) based on suspected cases and 1.43 (1.29-1.57) based on confirmed cases before 20 April. The longer time series (through 25 April) yielded a higher estimate of 2.04 (1.84-2.25), which reduced to 1.44 (1.38-1.51) after correction for ascertainment bias. Conclusions: The estimated transmission characteristics of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 suggest that pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical mitigation measures may appreciably limit its spread prior the development of an effective vaccine. © 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
Authors & Co-Authors
Meyers, Lauren Ancel
United States, Austin
The University of Texas at Austin
Skowronski, Danuta M.
Canada, Vancouver
Bc Centre for Disease Control
Earn, David J.D.
Canada, Hamilton
Mcmaster University
Dushoff, Jonathan G.
Canada, Hamilton
Mcmaster University
Fisman, David N.
Canada, Toronto
University of Toronto
Edmunds, William John
United Kingdom, London
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Hupert, Nathaniel
United States, New York
Weill Cornell Medicine
United States, Atlanta
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Scarpino, Samuel V.
United States, Austin
The University of Texas at Austin
Patrick, David M.
Canada, Vancouver
Bc Centre for Disease Control
Brunham, Robert C.
Canada, Vancouver
Bc Centre for Disease Control
Statistics
Citations: 119
Authors: 10
Affiliations: 9
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1111/j.1750-2659.2009.00100.x
ISSN:
17502659