Measuring household vulnerability to climate-induced stresses in pastoral rangelands of Kenya: Implications for resilience programming

This study uses statistical and econometric tools to measure households’ vulnerability in pastoral rangelands of Kenya. It considered 27 socio-economic and biophysical indicators obtained from 302 households’ in-depth interviews to reflect climate vulnerability components: adaptive capacity, exposure and sensitivity. The theoretical framework used combines exposure and sensitivity to produce potential impact, which was then compared with adaptive capacity in order to generate an overall measure of vulnerability. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to develop weights for different indicators and produce a household vulnerability index (HVI) so as to classify households according to their level of vulnerability. In order to understand the determinants of vulnerability to climate-induced stresses, an ordered probit model was employed with predictor variables. The results show that 27% of households were highly vulnerable, 44% were moderately vulnerable and 29% of households were less vulnerable to climate-induced stresses. Factor estimates of the probit model further revealed that the main determinants of pastoral vulnerability are sex of household head, age of household head, number of dependents, marital status, social linkages, access to extension services and early warning information, complementary source of income, herd size and diversity, herd structure, herd mobility, distance to markets, employment status, coping strategies and access to credit. Therefore, policies that address these determinants of vulnerability with emphasis on women's empowerment, education and income diversifications are likely to enhance resilience of pastoral households.