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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
general
The global distribution and burden of dengue
Nature, Volume 496, No. 7446, Year 2013
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Description
Dengue is a systemic viral infection transmitted between humans by Aedes mosquitoes. For some patients, dengue is a life-threatening illness. There are currently no licensed vaccines or specific therapeutics, and substantial vector control efforts have not stopped its rapid emergence and global spread. The contemporary worldwide distribution of the risk of dengue virus infection and its public health burden are poorly known. Here we undertake an exhaustive assembly of known records of dengue occurrence worldwide, and use a formal modelling framework to map the global distribution of dengue risk. We then pair the resulting risk map with detailed longitudinal information from dengue cohort studies and population surfaces to infer the public health burden of dengue in 2010. We predict dengue to be ubiquitous throughout the tropics, with local spatial variations in risk influenced strongly by rainfall, temperature and the degree of urbanization. Using cartographic approaches, we estimate there to be 390 million (95% credible interval 284-528) dengue infections per year, of which 96 million (67-136) manifest apparently (any level of disease severity). This infection total is more than three times the dengue burden estimate of the World Health Organization. Stratification of our estimates by country allows comparison with national dengue reporting, after taking into account the probability of an apparent infection being formally reported. The most notable differences are discussed. These new risk maps and infection estimates provide novel insights into the global, regional and national public health burden imposed by dengue. We anticipate that they will provide a starting point for a wider discussion about the global impact of this disease and will help to guide improvements in disease control strategies using vaccine, drug and vector control methods, and in their economic evaluation. © 2013 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.
Authors & Co-Authors
Bhatt, S. M.
United Kingdom, Oxford
University of Oxford
Gething, Peter W.
United Kingdom, Oxford
University of Oxford
Brady, Oliver J.
United Kingdom, Oxford
University of Oxford
United Kingdom, Abingdon
Oxitec Limited
Messina, Jane Paula
United Kingdom, Oxford
University of Oxford
Farlow, Andrew W.K.
United Kingdom, Oxford
University of Oxford
Moyes, Catherine L.
United Kingdom, Oxford
University of Oxford
Drake, John M.
United Kingdom, Oxford
University of Oxford
United States, Athens
University of Georgia
Brownstein, John S.
United States, Boston
Boston Children's Hospital
Gatewood Hoen, Anne Gatewood
United States, Hanover
Geisel School of Medicine at Dartmouth
Sankoh, Osman A.
Ghana, Accra
Indepth Network
South Africa, Johannesburg
Wits School of Public Health
Germany, Heidelberg
Universität Heidelberg
Myers, Monica F.
United Kingdom, Oxford
University of Oxford
George, Dylan B.
United States, Bethesda
National Institutes of Health Nih
Jäenisch, Thomas
Germany, Heidelberg
Universitätsklinikum Heidelberg
William Wint, G. R.
United Kingdom, Oxford
University of Oxford
Simmons, Cameron Paul
United States, Athens
University of Georgia
Viet Nam, Ho Chi Minh City
Oxford University Clinical Research Unit
Scott, Thomas W.
United States, Bethesda
National Institutes of Health Nih
United States, Davis
University of California, Davis
Farrar, Jeremy James
Viet Nam, Ho Chi Minh City
Oxford University Clinical Research Unit
United Kingdom, Oxford
University of Oxford
Singapore, Singapore City
National University of Singapore
Hay, Simon I.
United Kingdom, Oxford
University of Oxford
United States, Bethesda
National Institutes of Health Nih
Statistics
Citations: 1,293
Authors: 18
Affiliations: 13
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1038/nature12060
ISSN:
00280836
e-ISSN:
14764687
Research Areas
Infectious Diseases
Study Design
Cross Sectional Study
Cohort Study