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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
general
Impact of enhanced tuberculosis diagnosis in South Africa: A mathematical model of expanded culture and drug susceptibility testing
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Volume 105, No. 32, Year 2008
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Description
South Africa has high rates of tuberculosis (TB), including multidrug-resistant (MDR) and extensively drug-resistant (XDR) strains. Expanding access to culture and drug susceptibility testing (DST) for TB diagnosis may help control this epidemic, but the potential impact of existing and novel TB diagnostics is uncertain. By fitting to World Health Organization epidemiological estimates, we developed a compartmental difference-equation model of the TB/HIV epidemic among South African adults. Performing culture and DST in 37% of new cases and 85% of previously treated cases was projected to save 47,955 lives (17.2% reduction in TB mortality, 95% simulation interval (S.I.) 8.9-24.4%), avert 7,721 MDR-TB cases (14.1% reduction, 95% S.I. 5.3-23.8%), and prevent 46.6% of MDR-TB deaths (95% S.I. 32.6-56.0%) in South Africa over 10 years. Used alone, expanded culture and DST did not reduce XDR-TB incidence, but they enhanced the impact of transmission-reduction strategies, such as respiratory isolation. In South Africa, expanding TB culture and DST could substantially reduce TB, and particularly MDR-TB, mortality. Control of XDR-TB will require additional interventions, the impact of which may be enhanced by improved TB diagnosis. © 2008 by The National Academy of Sciences of the USA.
Available Materials
https://efashare.b-cdn.net/share/pmc/articles/PMC2516234/bin/supp_105_32_11293__index.html
https://efashare.b-cdn.net/share/pmc/articles/PMC2516234/bin/0800965105_Appendix_PDF.pdf
https://efashare.b-cdn.net/share/pmc/articles/PMC2516234/bin/0800965105_0800965105SI.pdf
Authors & Co-Authors
Dowdy, David W.
Unknown Affiliation
Chaisson, Richard E.
Unknown Affiliation
Maartens, Gary Tuberculosis
Unknown Affiliation
Corbett, Elizabeth L.
Unknown Affiliation
Dorman, Susan E.
Unknown Affiliation
Statistics
Citations: 97
Authors: 5
Affiliations: 6
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1073/pnas.0800965105
ISSN:
00278424
Research Areas
Health System And Policy
Infectious Diseases
Study Design
Cohort Study
Study Locations
South Africa