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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
general
Contribution of anthropogenic and natural sources to atmospheric methane variability
Nature, Volume 443, No. 7110, Year 2006
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Description
Methane is an important greenhouse gas, and its atmospheric concentration has nearly tripled since pre-industrial times. The growth rate of atmospheric methane is determined by the balance between surface emissions and photochemical destruction by the hydroxyl radical, the major atmospheric oxidant. Remarkably, this growth rate has decreased markedly since the early 1990s, and the level of methane has remained relatively constant since 1999, leading to a downward revision of its projected influence on global temperatures. Large fluctuations in the growth rate of atmospheric methane are also observed from one year to the next, but their causes remain uncertain. Here we quantify the processes that controlled variations in methane emissions between 1984 and 2003 using an inversion model of atmospheric transport and chemistry. Our results indicate that wetland emissions dominated the inter-annual variability of methane sources, whereas fire emissions played a smaller role, except during the 1997-1998 El Nĩo event. These top-down estimates of changes in wetland and fire emissions are in good agreement with independent estimates based on remote sensing information and biogeochemical models. On longer timescales, our results show that the decrease in atmospheric methane growth during the 1990s was caused by a decline in anthropogenic emissions. Since 1999, however, they indicate that anthropogenic emissions of methane have risen again. The effect of this increase on the growth rate of atmospheric methane has been masked by a coincident decrease in wetland emissions, but atmospheric methane levels may increase in the near future if wetland emissions return to their mean 1990s levels. © 2006 Nature Publishing Group.
Authors & Co-Authors
Bousquet, Philippe
France, Gif-sur-yvette
Laboratoire Des Sciences du Climat et de L'environnement
France, Versailles
Université de Versailles Saint-quentin-en-yvelines
Ciais, Philippe
France, Gif-sur-yvette
Laboratoire Des Sciences du Climat et de L'environnement
Miller, John Bharat
United States, Washington, D.c.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
United States, Boulder
University of Colorado Boulder
Dlugokencky, Edward J.
United States, Washington, D.c.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Hauglustaine, Didier A.
France, Gif-sur-yvette
Laboratoire Des Sciences du Climat et de L'environnement
Prigent, Catherine
France, Neuville-sur-oise
Lerma - Laboratoire D'études du Rayonnement et de la Matière en Astrophysique et Atmosphères
van der Werf, Guido R.
Netherlands, Amsterdam
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Peylin, P.
France, Thiverval-grignon
Lbi
Brunke, Ernst Günther
South Africa, Pretoria
South African Weather Service
Carouge, Claire
France, Gif-sur-yvette
Laboratoire Des Sciences du Climat et de L'environnement
Langenfelds, Ray L.
Australia, Canberra
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
Lathière, J.
France, Gif-sur-yvette
Laboratoire Des Sciences du Climat et de L'environnement
Papa, Fabrice
France, Neuville-sur-oise
Lerma - Laboratoire D'études du Rayonnement et de la Matière en Astrophysique et Atmosphères
United States, New York
Nasa Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Ramonet, Michel
France, Gif-sur-yvette
Laboratoire Des Sciences du Climat et de L'environnement
Schmidt, Martina
France, Gif-sur-yvette
Laboratoire Des Sciences du Climat et de L'environnement
Steele, Lloyd Paul
Australia, Canberra
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
Tyler, S. C.
United States, Irvine
University of California, Irvine
White, James W.C.
United States, Boulder
University of Colorado Boulder
Statistics
Citations: 938
Authors: 18
Affiliations: 11
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1038/nature05132
ISSN:
00280836
e-ISSN:
14764687