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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
agricultural and biological sciences
Design and optimisation of a large-area process-based model for annual crops
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Volume 124, No. 1-2, Year 2004
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Description
The formulation of a new process-based crop model, the general large-area model (GLAM) for annual crops is presented. The model has been designed to operate on spatial scales commensurate with those of global and regional climate models. It aims to simulate the impact of climate on crop yield. Procedures for model parameter determination and optimisation are described, and demonstrated for the prediction of groundnut (i.e. peanut; Arachis hypogaea L.) yields across India for the period 1966-1989. Optimal parameters (e.g. extinction coefficient, transpiration efficiency, rate of change of harvest index) were stable over space and time, provided the estimate of the yield technology trend was based on the full 24-year period. The model has two location-specific parameters, the planting date, and the yield gap parameter. The latter varies spatially and is determined by calibration. The optimal value varies slightly when different input data are used. The model was tested using a historical data set on a 2.5°×2.5° grid to simulate yields. Three sites are examined in detail-grid cells from Gujarat in the west, Andhra Pradesh towards the south, and Uttar Pradesh in the north. Agreement between observed and modelled yield was variable, with correlation coefficients of 0.74, 0.42 and 0, respectively. Skill was highest where the climate signal was greatest, and correlations were comparable to or greater than correlations with seasonal mean rainfall. Yields from all 35 cells were aggregated to simulate all-India yield. The correlation coefficient between observed and simulated yields was 0.76, and the root mean square error was 8.4% of the mean yield. The model can be easily extended to any annual crop for the investigation of the impacts of climate variability (or change) on crop yield over large areas. © 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Authors & Co-Authors
Challinor, A. J.
United Kingdom, Reading
University of Reading
Wheeler, Timothy Robert
United Kingdom, Reading
University of Reading
Craufurd, Peter Q.
United Kingdom, Reading
University of Reading
Slingo, Julia M.
United Kingdom, Reading
University of Reading
Grimes, David I.F.
United Kingdom, Reading
University of Reading
Statistics
Citations: 226
Authors: 5
Affiliations: 1
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1016/j.agrformet.2004.01.002
ISSN:
01681923