Skip to content
Home
About Us
Resources
Profiles Metrics
Authors Directory
Institutions Directory
Top Authors
Top Institutions
Top Sponsors
AI Digest
Contact Us
Menu
Home
About Us
Resources
Profiles Metrics
Authors Directory
Institutions Directory
Top Authors
Top Institutions
Top Sponsors
AI Digest
Contact Us
Home
About Us
Resources
Profiles Metrics
Authors Directory
Institutions Directory
Top Authors
Top Institutions
Top Sponsors
AI Digest
Contact Us
Menu
Home
About Us
Resources
Profiles Metrics
Authors Directory
Institutions Directory
Top Authors
Top Institutions
Top Sponsors
AI Digest
Contact Us
Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
earth and planetary sciences
Projected changes in mean and extreme precipitation in Africa under global warming. Part II: East Africa
Journal of Climate, Volume 24, No. 14, Year 2011
Notification
URL copied to clipboard!
Description
Probable changes in mean and extreme precipitation in East Africa are estimated from general circulation models (GCMs) prepared for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Bayesian statistics are used to derive the relative weights assigned to each member in the multimodel ensemble. There is substantial evidence in support of a positive shift of the whole rainfall distribution in East Africa during the wet seasons. The models give indications for an increase in mean precipitation rates and intensity of high rainfall events but for less severe droughts. Upward precipitation trends are projected from early this (twenty first) century. As in the observations, a statistically significant link between sea surface temperature gradients in the tropical Indian Ocean and short rains (October-December) in East Africa is simulated in the GCMs. Furthermore, most models project a differential warming of the Indian Ocean during boreal autumn. This is favorable for an increase in the probability of positive Indian Ocean zonal mode events, which have been associated with anomalously strong short rains in East Africa. On top of the general increase in rainfall in the tropics due to thermodynamic effects, a change in the structure of the Eastern Hemisphere Walker circulation is consistent with an increase in East Africa precipitation relative to other regions within the same latitudinal belt. A notable feature of this change is a weakening of the climatological subsidence over eastern Kenya. East Africa is shown to be a region in which a coherent projection of future precipitation change can be made, supported by physical arguments. Although the rate of change is still uncertain, almost all results point to a wetter climate with more intense wet seasons and less severe droughts. © 2011 American Meteorological Society.
Authors & Co-Authors
Shongwe, Mxolisi Excellent
Netherlands, De Bilt
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute
South Africa, Pretoria
South African Weather Service
Van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan
Netherlands, De Bilt
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute
Van Den Hurk, B. J.J.M.
Netherlands, De Bilt
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute
Van Aalst, Maarten Krispijn
Netherlands, Den Haag
Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre
Statistics
Citations: 292
Authors: 4
Affiliations: 3
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1175/2010JCLI2883.1
ISSN:
08948755
Research Areas
Environmental
Study Locations
Multi-countries
Kenya