Impact of pre-existing drug resistance on risk of virological failure in South Africa

Objectives: There is conflicting evidence on the impact of pre-existing HIV drug resistance mutations (DRMs) in patients infected with non-B subtype virus. Methods: We performed a case-cohort substudy of the AIDS Drug Resistance Surveillance Study, which enrolled South African patients initiating first-line efavirenz/emtricitabine/tenofovir. Pre-ART DRMs were detected by Illumina sequencing of HIV pol and DRMs present at <20% of the viral population were labelled as minority variants (MVs). Weighted Cox proportional hazards models estimated the association between pre-ART DRMs and risk of virological failure (VF), defined as confirmed HIV-1 RNA ≥1000 copies/mL after ≥5 months of ART. Results: The evaluable population included 178 participants from a randomly selected subcohort (16 with VF, 162 without VF) and 83 additional participants with VF. In the subcohort, 16% of participants harboured ≥1 majority DRM. The presence of any majority DRM was associated with a 3-fold greater risk of VF (P=0.002), which increased to 9.2-fold (P<0.001) in those with <2 active drugs. Thirteen percent of participants harboured MV DRMs in the absence of majority DRMs. Presence of MVs alone had no significant impact on the risk of VF. Inclusion of pre-ART MVs with majority DRMs improved the sensitivity but reduced the specificity of predicting VF. Conclusions: In a South African cohort, the presence of majority DRMs increased the risk of VF, especially for participants receiving <2 active drugs. The detection of drug-resistant MVs alone did not predict an increased risk of VF, but their inclusion with majority DRMs affected the sensitivity/specificity of predicting VF.