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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
immunology and microbiology
HSV-2 serology can be predictive of HIV epidemic potential and hidden sexual risk behavior in the Middle East and North Africa
Epidemics, Volume 2, No. 4, Year 2010
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Description
Background: HIV prevalence is low in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, though the risk or potential for further spread in the future is not well understood. Behavioral surveys are limited in this region and when available have serious limitations in assessing the risk of HIV acquisition. We demonstrate the potential use of herpes simplex virus-2 (HSV-2) seroprevalence as a marker for HIV risk within MENA. Methods: We designed a mathematical model to assess whether HSV-2 prevalence can be predictive of future HIV spread. We also conducted a systematic literature review of HSV-2 seroprevalence studies within MENA. Results: We found that HSV-2 prevalence data are rather limited in this region. Prevalence is typically low among the general population but high in established core groups prone to sexually transmitted infections such as men who have sex with men and female sex workers. Our model predicts that if HSV-2 prevalence is low and stable, then the risk of future HIV epidemics is low. However, expanding or high HSV-2 prevalence (greater than about 20%), implies a risk for a considerable HIV epidemic. Based on available HSV-2 prevalence data, it is not likely that the general population in MENA is experiencing or will experience such a considerable HIV epidemic. Nevertheless, the risk for concentrated HIV epidemics among several high-risk core groups is present. Conclusions: HSV-2 prevalence surveys provide a useful mechanism for identifying and corroborating populations at risk for HIV within MENA. HSV-2 serology offers an effective tool for probing hidden sexual risk behaviors in a region where quality behavioral data are limited. © 2010 Elsevier B.V.
Authors & Co-Authors
Abu-Raddad, Laith J.
United States, Ithaca
Cornell University
United States, New York
Weill Cornell Medicine
United States, Seattle
Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center
Schiffer, Joshua T.
United States, Seattle
Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center
United States, Seattle
University of Washington
Ashley, Rhoda L.
United States, Seattle
Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center
United States, Seattle
University of Washington
Mumtaz, Ghina R.
United States, Seattle
University of Washington
Alsallaq, Ramzi A.
United States, Ithaca
Cornell University
Akala, Francisca Ayodeji
United States, Washington, D.c.
The World Bank, Usa
Semini, Iris
Egypt, Cairo
Joint United Nations Programme on Hiv/aids Regional Support Team
Riedner, Gabriele
Switzerland, Geneva
Organisation Mondiale de la Santé
Wilson, David P.
United States, Washington, D.c.
The World Bank, Usa
Statistics
Citations: 69
Authors: 9
Affiliations: 7
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1016/j.epidem.2010.08.003
ISSN:
17554365
Research Areas
Infectious Diseases
Sexual And Reproductive Health
Study Design
Cross Sectional Study
Study Approach
Systematic review
Study Locations
Multi-countries
Participants Gender
Male
Female