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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
immunology and microbiology
Spatiotemporal tools for emerging and endemic disease hotspots in small areas: An analysis of dengue and chikungunya in Barbados, 2013–2016
American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, Volume 103, No. 1, Year 2020
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Description
Dengue fever and other febrile mosquito-borne diseases place considerable health and economic burdens on small island nations in the Caribbean. Here, we used two methods of cluster detection to find potential hotspots of transmission of dengue and chikungunya in Barbados, and to assess the impact of input surveillance data and methodology on observed patterns of risk. Using Moran’s I and spatial scan statistics, we analyzed the geospatial and temporal distribution of disease cases and rates across Barbados for dengue fever in 2013–2016, and a chikungunya outbreak in 2014. During years with high numbers of dengue cases, hotspots for cases were found with Moran’s I in the south and central regions in 2013 and 2016, respectively. Using smoothed disease rates, clustering was detected in all years for dengue. Hotspots suggesting higher rates were not detected via spatial scan statistics, but coldspots suggesting lower than expected rates of disease activity were found in southwestern Barbados during high case years of dengue. No significant spatiotemporal structure was found in cases during the chikungunya outbreak. Spatial analysis of surveillance data is useful in identifying outbreak hotspots, potentially complementing existing early warning systems. We caution that these methods should be used in a manner appropriate to available data and reflecting explicit public health goals—managing for overall case numbers or targeting anomalous rates for further investigation. Copyright © 2020 by The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.
Authors & Co-Authors
Lippi, Catherine A.
United States, Gainesville
University of Florida
Stewart-Ibarra, Anna M.
Uruguay, Montevideo
Interamerican Institute for Global Change Research Iai
Romero, Moory M.
United States, Syracuse
Suny College of Environmental Science and Forestry
Lowe, Rachel
United Kingdom, London
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Spain, Barcelona
Instituto de Salud Global de Barcelona
Mahon, Roché
Barbados, Bridgetown
Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology
van Meerbeeck, Cédric J.
Barbados, Bridgetown
Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology
Rollock, Leslie
Unknown Affiliation
Gittens-St.Hilaire, Marquita
Jamaica, Kingston
The University of the West Indies
Trotman, Adrian R.
Barbados, Bridgetown
Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology
Borbor-Cordova, Mercy J.
Ecuador, Guayaquil
Escuela Superior Politecnica Del Litoral Ecuador
Ryan, Sadie J.
United States, Gainesville
University of Florida
Statistics
Citations: 11
Authors: 11
Affiliations: 8
Identifiers
Doi:
10.4269/ajtmh.19-0919
ISSN:
00029637
Research Areas
Health System And Policy
Infectious Diseases