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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
immunology and microbiology
Imported chikungunya cases in an area newly colonized by Aedes albopictus: Mathematical assessment of the best public health strategy
Eurosurveillance, Volume 21, No. 18, Year 2016
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Description
We aimed to identify the optimal strategy that should be used by public health authorities against transmission of chikungunya virus in mainland France. The theoretical model we developed, which mimics the current surveillance system, predicted that without vector control (VC), the probability of local transmission after introduction of viraemic patients was around 2%, and the number of autochthonous cases between five and 15 persons per hectare, depending on the number of imported cases. Compared with this baseline, we considered different strategies (VC after clinical suspicion of a case or after laboratory confirmation, for imported or autochthonous cases): Awaiting laboratory confirmation for suspected imported cases to implement VC had no significant impact on the epidemiological outcomes analysed, mainly because of the delay before entering into the surveillance system. However, waiting for laboratory confirmation of autochthonous cases before implementing VC resulted in more frequent outbreaks. After analysing the economic cost of such strategies, our study suggested implementing VC immediately after the notification of a suspected autochthonous case as the most efficient strategy in settings where local transmission has been proven. Nevertheless, we identified that decreasing reporting time for imported cases should remain a priority. © 2016, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC). All rights reserved.
Authors & Co-Authors
Jourdain, Frédéric
Unknown Affiliation
Perrin, Yvon
Unknown Affiliation
Noël, Harold
France, Saint-maurice
Institut de Veille Sanitaire
Paty, Marie Claire
France, Saint-maurice
Institut de Veille Sanitaire
de Valk, Henriette D.
France, Saint-maurice
Institut de Veille Sanitaire
Septfons, Alexandra
France, Saint-maurice
Institut de Veille Sanitaire
Simard, Frédéric R.
France, Paris
Cnrs Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Fontenille, Didier
France, Paris
Cnrs Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
ROCHE, B.
France, Paris
Sorbonne Université
Statistics
Citations: 8
Authors: 9
Affiliations: 3
Identifiers
Doi:
10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2016.21.18.30221
ISSN:
1025496X