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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
medicine
Elective surgery cancellations due to the COVID-19 pandemic: global predictive modelling to inform surgical recovery plans
British Journal of Surgery, Volume 107, No. 11, Year 2020
Notification
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Description
Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted routine hospital services globally. This study estimated the total number of adult elective operations that would be cancelled worldwide during the 12 weeks of peak disruption due to COVID-19. Methods: A global expert response study was conducted to elicit projections for the proportion of elective surgery that would be cancelled or postponed during the 12 weeks of peak disruption. A Bayesian β-regression model was used to estimate 12-week cancellation rates for 190 countries. Elective surgical case-mix data, stratified by specialty and indication (surgery for cancer versus benign disease), were determined. This case mix was applied to country-level surgical volumes. The 12-week cancellation rates were then applied to these figures to calculate the total number of cancelled operations. Results: The best estimate was that 28 404 603 operations would be cancelled or postponed during the peak 12 weeks of disruption due to COVID-19 (2 367 050 operations per week). Most would be operations for benign disease (90·2 per cent, 25 638 922 of 28 404 603). The overall 12-week cancellation rate would be 72·3 per cent. Globally, 81·7 per cent of operations for benign conditions (25 638 922 of 31 378 062), 37·7 per cent of cancer operations (2 324 070 of 6 162 311) and 25·4 per cent of elective caesarean sections (441 611 of 1 735 483) would be cancelled or postponed. If countries increased their normal surgical volume by 20 per cent after the pandemic, it would take a median of 45 weeks to clear the backlog of operations resulting from COVID-19 disruption. Conclusion: A very large number of operations will be cancelled or postponed owing to disruption caused by COVID-19. Governments should mitigate against this major burden on patients by developing recovery plans and implementing strategies to restore surgical activity safely. © 2020 BJS Society Ltd Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd
Available Materials
https://efashare.b-cdn.net/share/pmc/articles/PMC7272903/bin/bjs11746-sup-0001-supinfo.docx
https://efashare.b-cdn.net/share/pmc/articles/PMC7272903/bin/bjs11746-sup-0002-figures1.pdf
https://efashare.b-cdn.net/share/pmc/articles/PMC7272903/bin/bjs11746-sup-0003-figures2.pdf
https://efashare.b-cdn.net/share/pmc/articles/PMC7272903/bin/bjs11746-sup-0004-figures3.pdf
https://efashare.b-cdn.net/share/pmc/articles/PMC7272903/bin/bjs11746-sup-0005-figures4.pdf
https://efashare.b-cdn.net/share/pmc/articles/PMC7272903/bin/bjs11746-sup-0006-figures5.pdf
https://efashare.b-cdn.net/share/pmc/articles/PMC7272903/bin/bjs11746-sup-0007-figures6.pdf
https://efashare.b-cdn.net/share/pmc/articles/PMC7272903/bin/bjs11746-sup-0008-figures7.pdf
https://efashare.b-cdn.net/share/pmc/articles/PMC7272903/bin/bjs11746-sup-0009-appendix1.docx
Authors & Co-Authors
Nepogodiev, Dmitri
Unknown Affiliation
Omar, Omar Mohammed
Unknown Affiliation
Glasbey, James C.
Unknown Affiliation
Li, Elizabeth
Unknown Affiliation
Simoes, Joana F.F.
Unknown Affiliation
Abbott, Tom Ef
Unknown Affiliation
Ademuyiwa, Adesoji O.
Unknown Affiliation
Biccard, Bruce Mclure
Unknown Affiliation
Chaudhry, Daoud
Unknown Affiliation
Di Saverio, S.
Unknown Affiliation
Gallo, Gaetano
Unknown Affiliation
Ghosh, Dhruva Nath
Unknown Affiliation
Harrison, Ewen M.
Unknown Affiliation
Hutchinson, Peter John A.
Unknown Affiliation
Kamarajah, Sivesh K.
Unknown Affiliation
Keller, Deborah Susan
Unknown Affiliation
Lawani, Ismaïl
Unknown Affiliation
Minaya-Bravo, Ana M.
Unknown Affiliation
Moore, Rachel L.
Unknown Affiliation
Dion G. Morton, Dion Gregory M.
Unknown Affiliation
Ntirenganya, Faustin
Unknown Affiliation
Pata, Francesco
Unknown Affiliation
Pearse, Rupert M.
Unknown Affiliation
la Medina, Antonio Ramos De
Unknown Affiliation
Tabiri, Stephen
Unknown Affiliation
Venn, Mary L.
Unknown Affiliation
Bhangu, Aneel Amir
Unknown Affiliation
Siaw-Acheampong, Kwabena
Unknown Affiliation
Adamina, Michel
Unknown Affiliation
Agarwal, Arnav
Unknown Affiliation
AlAmeer, Ehab S.
Unknown Affiliation
Alderson, Derek A.
Unknown Affiliation
Alakaloko, Felix Makinde
Unknown Affiliation
Alser, Osaid H.
Unknown Affiliation
Arnaud, Alexis P.
Unknown Affiliation
Blanco-Colino, R.
Unknown Affiliation
Brar, Amanpreet
Unknown Affiliation
Breen, Kerry Ann
Unknown Affiliation
Buarque, Igor Lima
Unknown Affiliation
Cunha, Miguel F.
Unknown Affiliation
Dawson, Brett E.
Unknown Affiliation
Desai, Anant D.
Unknown Affiliation
Edwards, John G.
Unknown Affiliation
Elhadi, Muhammed K.
Unknown Affiliation
Evans, Jonathan Paul
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Fiore, Marco
Unknown Affiliation
Fitzgerald, James Edward F.
Unknown Affiliation
Ford, Samuel J.
Unknown Affiliation
Ghosh, Dhruv
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Griffiths, Ewen A.
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Gujjuri, Rohan R.
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Isik, Arda A.
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Jenkinson, Michael David
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Jones, Conor Stephen
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Khatri, Chetan
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Keatley, James M.
Unknown Affiliation
Kolias, Angelos Georgiou
Unknown Affiliation
Lawday, Samuel
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Lederhuber, Hans Christian
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Mashbari, Hassan Naser A.
Unknown Affiliation
Mazingi, Dennis S.
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McKay, Siobhan Chloe
Unknown Affiliation
Metallidis, Symeon A.
Unknown Affiliation
Mohan, Helen M.
Unknown Affiliation
Moszkowicz, David
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Moug, Susan Joan
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Ng-Kamstra, Joshua S.
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Outani, Oumaima
Unknown Affiliation
Pellino, Gianluca
Unknown Affiliation
Pinkney, Thomas D.
Unknown Affiliation
Pockney, Peter G.
Unknown Affiliation
Radenković, Dejan V.
Unknown Affiliation
Roberts, John Keith
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Roslani, April Camilla
Unknown Affiliation
Stewart, Grant D.
Unknown Affiliation
Shaw, Richard John
Unknown Affiliation
Shu, Sebastian
Unknown Affiliation
Soreide, K.
Unknown Affiliation
Spinelli, Antonino
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Tiwari, Abhinav
Unknown Affiliation
Townend, Philip J.
Unknown Affiliation
Trout, Isobel M.
Unknown Affiliation
Tsoulfas, Georgios
Unknown Affiliation
Van Ramshorst, G. H.
Unknown Affiliation
Vidya, Raghavan
Unknown Affiliation
Warren, Oliver J.
Unknown Affiliation
Wright, Naomi Jane
Unknown Affiliation
Hoste, Eric A.
Unknown Affiliation
Poelaert, Jan I.T.
Unknown Affiliation
de Neve, Nikolaas Y.
Unknown Affiliation
Biston, Patrick
Unknown Affiliation
Piagnerelli, Michaël
Unknown Affiliation
Rutsaert, Robert
Unknown Affiliation
Forget, Patrice
Unknown Affiliation
Kahn, David A.
Unknown Affiliation
Lois, Fernande Jane
Unknown Affiliation
Momeni, Mona
Unknown Affiliation
Malbrain, Manu L. N. G.
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Jorens, Philippe Germaine
Unknown Affiliation
Mirkovic, I.
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Kvolik, Slavica
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Frković, Vedran
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Maldini, Branka
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Goranovič, Tatjana
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Pavičić, Anna Marija
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Drab, Michal
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Hudacek, Kamil
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Štourač, Petr
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Möller, Kirsten E.
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Bestle, Morten Heiberg
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Pulkkinen, Anni
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Marret, Emmanuel
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Aubrun, Fréd́eric
Unknown Affiliation
Dumenil, Anne Sylvie
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Mercier, Frédéric J.
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Mentec, Hervé
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Futier, Emmanuel
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Petit, Antoine G.
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Albaladejo, Pierre
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Lefrant, Jean Yves
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Sbai, Hicham
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Steib, Annick
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Godier, Anne
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Just, Bernard
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Berger, Philippe
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Perrigault, Pierre François O.
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Piriou, Vincent
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Lebuffe, Gilles R.
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Ichaï, Carole R.
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Kees, Martin Georg
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Hoeft, Andreas
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Wittmann, Maria
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Gama-de Abreu, Marcelo
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Krassler, Jens
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Reinhart, Konrad K.
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Marx, Gernot
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Rossaint, Rolf
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Koulenti, Despoina
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Μoka, Eleni G.
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Koulouras, Vasilios P.
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Nakos, George
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Gkiokas, Georgios A.
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Arvaniti, Kostoula
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Matamis, Dimitrios
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Krémer, Ildikó
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Csomós, Ákos
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Doyle, Yvonne Gabrielle
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Roasio, Agostino
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Gatta, Alessandra
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Bianchin, Andrea
Unknown Affiliation
Della Corte, Francesco
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Bignami, Elena Giovanna
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Greco, Massimiliano
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Lembo, Rosalba
Unknown Affiliation
Della-Rocca, Giorgio
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Pelosi, Paolo P.
Unknown Affiliation
Grasso, Salvatore
Unknown Affiliation
Ranieri, V. Marco
Unknown Affiliation
Buhre, Wolfgang F.F.A.
Unknown Affiliation
van Klei, Wilton A.
Unknown Affiliation
Pickkers, Peter P.
Unknown Affiliation
Hollmann, Markus Wiersma
Unknown Affiliation
van Acker, Gijs J.D.
Unknown Affiliation
Dokka, Vegard
Unknown Affiliation
Tamowicz, Barbara
Unknown Affiliation
Berger-Estilita, Joana M.
Unknown Affiliation
Ferreira, Pedro Santos
Unknown Affiliation
Matos, Ricardo
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Lupu, Mary Nicoleta
Unknown Affiliation
Statistics
Citations: 955
Authors: 169
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1002/bjs.11746
ISSN:
00071323
Research Areas
Cancer
Covid
Health System And Policy