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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
general
Phenological sensitivity to climate across taxa and trophic levels
Nature, Volume 535, No. 7611, Year 2016
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Description
Differences in phenological responses to climate change among species can desynchronise ecological interactions and thereby threaten ecosystem function. To assess these threats, we must quantify the relative impact of climate change on species at different trophic levels. Here, we apply a Climate Sensitivity Profile approach to 10,003 terrestrial and aquatic phenological data sets, spatially matched to temperature and precipitation data, to quantify variation in climate sensitivity. The direction, magnitude and timing of climate sensitivity varied markedly among organisms within taxonomic and trophic groups. Despite this variability, we detected systematic variation in the direction and magnitude of phenological climate sensitivity. Secondary consumers showed consistently lower climate sensitivity than other groups. We used mid-century climate change projections to estimate that the timing of phenological events could change more for primary consumers than for species in other trophic levels (6.2 versus 2.5-2.9 days earlier on average), with substantial taxonomic variation (1.1-14.8 days earlier on average). © 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature.
Authors & Co-Authors
Henrys, Peter A.
United Kingdom, Lancaster
Lancaster Environment Centre
Burthe, Sarah Janette
United Kingdom, Wallingford
Uk Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
Hélaouët, Pierre
United Kingdom, Plymouth
Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science
Johns, David G.
United Kingdom, Plymouth
Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science
Jones, Ian D.
United Kingdom, Lancaster
Lancaster Environment Centre
Massimino, Dario
United Kingdom, Thetford
British Trust for Ornithology
Bacon, Philip J.
Unknown Affiliation
Carvalho, Laurence R.
United Kingdom, Wallingford
Uk Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
Clutton-Brock, Tim H.
United Kingdom, Cambridge
University of Cambridge
Edwards, Martin
United Kingdom, Plymouth
Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science
Hall, Stephen J.G.
United Kingdom, Lincoln
University of Lincoln
Harrington, Richard
United Kingdom, Harpenden
Rothamsted Research
Pearce-Higgins, James W.
United Kingdom, Thetford
British Trust for Ornithology
Høye, Toke Thomas
Denmark, Aarhus
Aarhus Universitet
Kruuk, Loeske E.B.
United Kingdom, Edinburgh
The University of Edinburgh
Australia, Canberra
The Australian National University
Pemberton, Josephine M.
United Kingdom, Edinburgh
The University of Edinburgh
Thompson, Paul Michael
United Kingdom, Aberdeen
University of Aberdeen
Winfield, Ian J.
United Kingdom, Lancaster
Lancaster Environment Centre
Wanless, Sarah
United Kingdom, Wallingford
Uk Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
Statistics
Citations: 575
Authors: 19
Affiliations: 16
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1038/nature18608
ISSN:
00280836
Research Areas
Environmental